With the recent announcements from Peerplays and Ardor to share drop onto BTS and NXT token holders i thought i might be interesting to do a comparison on the price action since the announcements.
Ardor
First to make their announcement on the 18th/19th of July that they would be using the avg holding of NXT during a snapshot period lasting for 90 days
- Announced - 18/19th of July 2016
- Snapshot Start - July 14th 2016
- Snapshot End - October 12th 2016
Peerplays
The team at Peerplays made an announcement on the 12th of August that they would be using a random date in a snapshot window lasting 16 days to distribute Peerplays tokens to BTS holders
- Announced - 12th of August 2016
- Snapshot Start - September 1st 2016
- Snapshot End - September 16th 2016
Charts
Given the details of the sharedrops are out of the way we can look at some charts with the important dates marked.
NXT - 12h candles
We can see the announcement caused and immediate jump in price, followed by a period of sideways movement before another explosive move higher, another pull back and a further rally to the finish line before the sharedrop period started; leaving NXT holders with a 400% capital increase at a price of 4405 Sats per NXT.
Since the snapshot period started we can see that some NXT holder's have taken some profits as the price decreased into the snapshot start date before finding support on the 50 period moving average and following it up to a new high of 4891 Sats. Price is still above the 50 period moving average but is relying on this support to hold again; it will be interesting to see how the next few days play out in the NXT market.
Given it is an average holding over a 90 day period if people sell out their holding before the end of the period this will reduce their average for the period and as such will reduce their total Ardor tokens. in saying that some market participants will be made up of hardcore NXT fans and some will be pure speculators; looking to cash in on the desire of the NXT holders to capitalize on the free Ardor shares and also pick up some bonus tokens for their efforts.
It is interesting to see the OBV value (pink line) showing buy/sell pressure at the start of the snapshot period and during the second rise in price; this shows that heavy selling by speculator as the snapshot started and the unwillingness to sell by the market (lack of supply) during the second peak which resulted in a higher prices on low volume
BTS - 12h candles
With 11 days before the snapshot period actually starts, the price of BTS also experience a similar rally soon after the announcement, coupled with some rather large volume spikes the price has moved up 36% in the last 7 days to a high of 1045 Sats.
1000 Sats is a psychological level that has been observed to slow even the strongest rallies in many other crypto markets; in saying this the price broke straight through it before pulling back to settle on the lower side of it with the current market price at 965 sats.
The chart also shows signs that the 9 period moving average is showing some support. OBV is showing that demand is dominating and in the last few candles we can sell that sell pressure is easing.
Looking at similar time frames
If we compare the markets for 1 week after the announcement was made we can see some similarities in the price actions and volume profiles for both these markets.
NXT - 12h candles
In the week proceeding the announcement NXT managed to move a whopping 77.06% from the announcement price with OBV (Pink line) making higher highs suggesting buying was out weighing selling; a small pull back before the explosive move seen on the previous chart; to do a fair comparison this is not displayed on this chart but it literally started in the next 12 hour candle
BTS - 12h candles
In the week proceeding the announcement BTS managed to move a very respectable 37.9% with a high price of 1048Sats; all the while showing impressive volume with OBV making higher highs suggesting good buy pressure. in the two large candles on the 13th and 17th ~200 Million BTS traded hands as buyers rushed in for a slice of the Peerplays pie. The future for this chart is unwritten but it will defiantly be an interesting 11 days in the lead up to the snapshot period.
It is interesting to view the volume trade between NXT and BTS in this initial period; even though BTS traded 200 Million shares in 24 hours; comparatively NXT traded ~30 Million although managed to obtain a higher percentage gain
During the snapshot; holders of BTS are likely to sit on their hands as it is a random time frame during that period. Within that snapshot window to be sure of your shares will being counted for the sharedrop prospective owners will need to have obtained their shares before the snapshot period commences and hold those shares throughout the whole time frame.
Hypothetical comparison
Out of interest i thought it might be interesting to see what the price of Bitshares would look like if it was to have the same percentage run up as NXT before the snapshot period started.
The results where a BTS price of 3814 Satoshi's.
It might seem out of reach looking at the current price; but looking at the previous charts i'm sure a lot of NXT holders were thinking they could snag a bargain on a pull back as well; only to see the price rocket away from them.
TL;DR
With all the recent development's happening in the Bitshares space at the moment and some sort of announcement that has Stan bursting at the seems to release; i'm sure a lot of people will be using the Peerplays sharedrop as a bonus for being well placed for a bright future.
If you are looking to get involved with the Peerplays sharedrop make sure you have purchased your BTS by the 1st of September and have it stored in the Bitshares Lite wallet, OpenLedger Web Wallet or Freedom Ledger wallet as there has not been official announcements from the exchanges that they will honor this sharedrop.
For more information on Peerplays; check out the Peerplays Website or the Announcement on Steemit
For more information on Ardor; check out the ANN