So for many who have been around for a long period of time In the bitcoin space, it looks as if one of our worst fears are coming true. The main bitcoin chain as we know it will most likely fork. Unless the two sides are majorly bluffing, I don’t think anyone is caving at this point. We will likely know for sure in a week when real signaling starts for segwit 2x and watch where the user base goes. If the user activated soft fork continues to be pushed for August first, bitmain and Bitcoin unlimited will most likely choose to go in a different direction.
While I personally think it is sad that we have gotten to this point, I also think that if each side wants a different version of bitcoin, perhaps in the long run it is good for both coins. I know I won’t be selling on either chain if there is a split and I would be interested to see what each side chooses to do. Despite popular belief, one chain will most likely not get complete destroyed by the other and we will probably see one chug along for a while, albeit at a lower price point. The eth hard fork showed us that if there is even just a small group of people supporting the old fork, it will survive.
Also there is a small possibility we will actually see a rise in the total market cap between the coins. Economically this should be the case, the market cap should split with the level of each side’s adoption, but with the ETH fork , we saw many people cannibalize other coins in order to support the chain of their choice or just buy in because they thought one side was cheap. Or we could likely see a drop in price before the fork as people who don’t want to risk the fork, put their money elsewhere. Eth might be that place, well have to see.
If you are unsure what to do for the fork, I would first get your coins off any exchange and put them on a paper wallet or hardware wallet where you control the keys. Exchanges have already said they will likely be closed and if some choose sides they might not give you credit on both chains like we saw for eth and etc. In addition I would avoid making transactions for a few days until things are completely sorted out. The subreddits will probably be ripe with people answering questions and helping the community on both ends so that might be a good place to look for the next few weeks.
There is always a chance that one side caves and we reach an agreement last second, but we wont know until the absolute last second. If the chains do fork however, both sides will be able to take the measures they have wanted but have been fought on in the past. If bitcoin unlimited wants to remove the block size and if bitcoin core wants to implement segwit schnorr signatures and lightning, they can do so. In the long term, this might actually be a good thing, but for now it remains risky. If you are not willing to lose the money you have now or cant afford to lose it, I would cash out and wait until things blow over. You might end up buying in at a higher price in the end, but that just might be the cost of insurance. I will personally continue holding and ill be waiting to see what happens in the future.
Thanks to @Elyaque for the badges