Wow, another interesting day in crytocurrencies and Bitcoin price action. BitCoin finally managed to rally into the $11,800 zone after numerous failed attempts to pass $11,100.
Yesterday was other classic Bulls vs. Bears battle with extremely tight range trading throughout most of the day and night before breaking out this morning at 6 a.m. EST. In the late evening, there was some noticeable downward price action from $11,100 to $10,600. This may have been bears testing market strength in an attempt to push us into the red on the 6 hour time frame. If so, the plan backfired and only served to remove some high volume sell orders from the top of the pool allowing Bulls the breathing room to push us up this a.m. BTC was able to hold support at $10,800 and slowly began to gain ground at $11,100 before a series of large orders ignited bull fever and smaller investors started piling in the boat.
Today I would expect a decent amount of volatility in the market as Bulls, Bears, uncertainty and hope battle it out for price supremacy.
To be more precise I would expect to see a sharp sell off sometime in the afternoon as smart money basically fucks over the FOMO crowd. I say this based on the lack of volume that is driving the recent price highs including this bump to $11,800
That said, my overall mid term market views remain unchanged in regards to the most recent dip in price from $11,400 to $8,400. For those with a terminal case of Bull fever “this was the correction” and we are now primed for the moon. For those with an unshakably Bearish attitude we are at the edge of the abyss and they are anxiously hoping to see John McCaffe eat his dick for Christmas dinner in 2020. I assume a more moderate view that pulls from both pools of thought. Don’t get me wrong, while a somewhat twisted part of me would like to see a guy eat his own dick on T.V. (kinda like watching a slow motion train wreck or why we find entertainment in automobile crash videos on Youtube); the reality is that we are nowhere near the abyss.
Will it hit $1,000,000 per coin within the next 24 months? That is a lofty goal and I may yet get to watch John Mcaffee become Katlyn Mcafee.
That aside BTC is here to stay in one form or another for the long term.
There are going to be corrections, crashes, collapses and other events that will shake the community and rock it to its core, but BTC will find a way to survive in one form or the other for the long run. The power of BTC is hope, and hope is an incurable human condition. Even when all hope is lost to cold resignation of fact it takes but a single burning ember to ignite it once more. BTC is more than a currency, a store of value, or a quick way to make a buck; it is a symbol. It is a symbol that unifies the little guy against the establishment and gives them hope of breaking the adage that only “the rich get richer and the poor get poorer”. Bitcoin makes the unempowered powerful. BTC provides a glimpse of a future free from getting fucked by the government and banks at every turn, a future free of being under the thumb of the man. That vision is a powerful one indeed as we are all tired, tired of the status quo and tired of having our destiny dictated to us by those in power.
I still find myself very, very concerned with the whole Bitfinex/Tether thing that is brewing. It may become another Mt. Gox bringing with it a devastating blow to the Crypto Market while ushering in a new dark age and long lasting bear market. But truth be told, that or some similar event is what we need. We needed the initial crash of Mt. Gox and the ensuing bear market to prove that BTC is a survivor; we needed China to close exchanges in order to clarify the fact that we don’t need those guys in the long run. We need pain, suffering and devastation to let us really appreciate hope. Steel is forged in fire.
Lecture aside, we have yet to have a real correction according to the one and three day charts; they don’t lie. Volume is drying up and a notable faith testing shakeout is once again around the corner. Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 12 hour time frames on BTC starting at the $8800 low of the last dip (11/30/17) and moving to the current high of $11,900; we could see a pullback into $10,400 levels if bullish mentality holds. This is commensurate with the low closing price of $9600 (11/29); it being a 50 percent retracement of the run from $7900 (11/23) to $11,400 (11/29). Applying a 50% retracement to the 3 day chart starting at the $5400 low of 11/10 gets us to $8637. We have yet to start a week over week correction since 9/13/17; 6/5/17 before that, 3/15/17 before that, and 1/15/17 before that. They tend to appear every 3 months.
https://cryptowat.ch/bitfinex/btcusd/1w (your MA, and MACD settings may differ from mine, but the time frames should be close)
In the event of a week over week correction I would look to moving averages for support in the $7,000-$8000 zone provided no major catastrophes occur; Bitfinex collapse, government crackdown etc.
https://www.thestreet.com/story/14407498/1/3-catastrophic-events-could-sink-bitcoin.html
Following that event I would expect extreme gains and potentially unimaginable highs that likely still won’t prevent Mr. Mcaffee from eating his own dick, but with the amount of money that will be made I doubt anyone will care if he was wrong about $1,000,000.
ETH @ $476
Etherium is going to trend with the market. Let’s face it ETH offers so much promise as a technology. I feel in the longer term it is underpriced and may hit $1000 at some point. Hell I view it as much more valuable than DASH and it’s in the $600 range I think. I would also look at NEO (the alleged ETC of China) that has Microsoft backing it in the future. ETH may find itself giving up some value if it loses Asian Market share to NEO, but even in that event its value will still far exceed its current price. If you are a HODLER, the ETH may be for you when the right buying opportunity presents itself. I would look to adopt a HODLER mentality after the next week over week correction. If you want to trade ETH today, watch BTC on the 30 minute and hourly charts what it does ETH will follow.
LITECOIN @ $103
Still not feeling the value here; I picked up a bunch in the $40, $50 range and summarily sold out in the $90’s; picked up again in the $78 range and sold throughout the $80’s. This is the first time that Litecoin has been able to sustain near $100 levels; it won’t be the last. We will be revisiting the $80’s and below at some point to really solidify its value at these higher price levels. As is the case with Etherium trade with BTC as LiteCoin will follow big brothers price action throughout the day. I may get in the market today or may not. If I do it will only be to try and snipe quick gains on shorter time frames.
