Next week will mark the first anniversary of the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom. For those of you whom aren't aware, Brexit is the name we gave to the decision for leaving the European Union.
At the risk of angering some pro-Brexit Steemians, I will lay out below why I believe a prediction I made shortly afterwards, will come true, in other words, Brexit won't happen.
A (Very) Brief History
Great Britain & Northern Ireland, otherwise known as the UK, joined the European common market in 1972, later to become the European Union.
The idea was to break down barriers within Europe so that we could all trade with each other in a free and easy manner. Also it was set up to protect European goods, so cheaper tariffs and taxes would mean that it was more viable to deal with a European counterpart than from a country outside the 'zone'.
However at some point the European Union became a political entity and this (quite rightly) started upsetting some people, as it meant that politicians that nobody voted for, could make laws for a country they didn't even live in.
The Tub Thumpers
The European situation left the door open for jingoistic, tub-thumping bigots like Nigel Farage formerly of the UK Independence Party (UKIP).
Farage used immigration as his political spear, which was basically thinly disguised racism. Whilst you don't have to be a white racist living in rural England, to join UKIP, it definitely helps.
The party has had various undercover reporters infiltrate their meetings and film some quite shocking behaviour by senior members.
However as is often the case in these matters, there are plenty of decent, non-racist people who felt abandoned by the mainstream parties and so flocked to UKIP.
The Referendum
The UK was in political turmoil, the election before had seen a power sharing deal between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives.
This might seem strange to Americans in particular, however whilst the Conservatives can be compared to the Republicans, it is the UK's Labour Party and not the Lib Dems who can be most closely compared to the Democrats of America.
The thing about power is, the people who have it, rarely want to share it. So David Cameron, the Prime Minister of England at the time, promised that if the electorate voted for him and him alone, he would hold a referendum.
So they did, and lo-and-behold, Cameron did what possibly no leader in history has ever done, and followed up on a sensationalist election promise.
Unfortunately he didn't lay out the rules for the referendum before holding it, mainly because he thought everybody would vote to remain in the EU and so thus didn't need to take it too seriously.
It was that very arrogance and stupidity that would come back to bite him very hard on his soft, flabby behind.
The Rules
As I pointed out to a colleague at the time, referendums should not be part of the democratic process. Ultimately we vote governments in to take long-term complex decisions on our behalf.
So asking us what we think about a long-term complex decision, is pretty bloody pointless. Because these decisions have so many factors to consider, it is hardly prudent to believe the electorate has either the time or the general intellect to properly consider questions such as; should we leave the EU?
To that end referendums are not binding, and should only trigger action if they have a 75% majority. Unfortunately David Cameron (ahem) forgot to inform the electorate that.
The vote happened and 52% of those voting said we should leave. Such a close result should have been political ammunition that Cameron could take to the EU and say; You see, my people aren't happy, you'd better do something about the current structure, or we will leave!
Unfortunately intelligence is not as important a prerequisite as going to Eton (very posh UK school that has provided around 20 UK PMs), when it comes to being a Prime Minister. So Mr Cameron rather than doing what he should have done, simply quit his post to join the after-dinner-speaker circuit a couple of years earlier than he would have done otherwise.
Why It Won't Happen
Reason One: The current Prime Minister didn't and still doesn't want the job.
I genuinely feel sorry for the current UK PM, Theresa May, she was quite firmly in the 'remain' camp and was thrust into the limelight when nobody else wanted to take the vacant job.
Imagine a long line of people, somebody asks them "Step forwards all those who want to be Prime Minister!"
Then imagine all of them bar one, taking a huge step backwards, leaving that poor sucker; Theresa May, to become PM.
Essentially she looks like she is stalling till the general election, whereby she can lose and leave this debacle to someone else.
Reason Two: It is a frighteningly complex web of legal issues.
It is easy for somebody who voted leave to say;
"I don't see what the issue is, we should just leave"
The reality though is that there are a myriad of issues to consider, from what to do about the travel and business visa situations. To the long-term deals we have in place with various European partners. Not to mention the various trade-taxation issues.
I can imagine sitting in some office in Whitehall (seat of UK parliament) and seeing some spotty little oik from the post room, come into my room wheeling a trolley with a ten thousand page document and dumping it on my desk and then expecting me to do something with it.
Reason three: Around half of the people don't want it to happen.
Usually this statistic wouldn't matter, in any close-run election, the deciding vote is usually only one or two percent above half.
In that situation however, there is nothing the 'losing half' can do, but to hope they will win the next one. With Brexit, it is different, because unlike an election, there is no natural path to take and therefore the half that didn't want it to happen in the first place, have more political clout than in an election.
Reason four: A lot of people who voted leave have already changed their mind.
Unfortunately when you average out the electorate, they are idiots. If you look up what was the biggest Google question on the 24th of June 2016, one day after the Brexit vote it was;
What is the European Union
Seriously, I shit you not.
There were interviews with people who said that they just voted leave because they hated David Cameron and wanted him to suffer a loss.
Seriously I shit you not.
There were other interviews with people who said they thought they were voting for David Cameron to leave.
Seriously I wish I was shitting you, but I'm not.
So with that being said, it is plausible that if the referendum happened again today, we would probably remain.
Reason five No single politician wants to go down as the person who messed Brexit up.
In the same way Theresa May is stalling until there is a snap general election called, so that she can return to political obscurity, and leave someone else with this mess.
So too will her successor and their successor after them, it is the hot potato that nobody wants to hold. It will get passed on until it has cooled down and nobody is talking about it.
That way whomsoever is holding said potato, can quietly put it down and walk away without anyone noticing.
Reason six At some point another referendum will be held with clearly stipulated rules.
This I imagine will happen sometime next year, or perhaps the year after. This time around it will be made clear to the British electorate what the rules are, and one of those rules will be a 75% majority, which simply won't happen because of territories like London, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar which were all close to or at 100% remain.
Reason seven The EU don't want us to leave and will probably come up with a last minute concession package.
I see this happening in a few years once all the dust has settled. They will say something along the lines of; 'Look, we'll back off on the whole political thing, if you drop this whole leave nonsense; what do you say fellas?'
At which point we will let out a huge sigh of relief and accept their offer...
My Vote
I voted remain, simply because as I mentioned before, it is a long-term complex decision and that's not my job to make those, it's theirs.
WHAT DO YOU THINK? WILL THE UK LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION? IF SO WHEN DO YOU BELIEVE THAT WILL HAPPEN? AS EVER, (WHILE KEEPING THINGS CIVIL) LET ME KNOW BELOW!
Title Image: Matthew Feeney on Unsplash