I've learned a good chunk of information from this test but there is still a lot more to know.
@edicted/smartsteem-curation-manipulation-test-part-1
I gave 10 SBD to @smartmarket to pump up this post. I was given about +$3.00 before the pump from various followers:
| user | curation |
|---|---|
| @taskmaster4450 | 0.397 |
| @hr1 | 0.09 |
| @steveconnor | 0.124 |
| @edicted | 0.029 (Yes, I made curation off my own post.) |
| @stayoutoftherz | 0.014 |
| @unfixable | 0.004 |
| @solarwarrior | 0.021 |
Total curation was $8.23 while total post payout was $34. I believe SP was pegged to $4 at the time.
@solarwarrior did me a solid and noted the reward right away:
I received 0.021 SP for my vote...
at the time of voting I believe my voting power was around 1.5 cents..
so my return at that times price would be 0.021*3.00 steem price = 6.3 cents..
so its a factor 4 return.. that s the highest I have seen on steemit so far!
I believe promising fixed upvotes after 24 h later or so could be a major motivation for people to more actively vote on your posts!
So yes! Success! It is very easy to use a voting service to manipulate curation rewards, artificially so.
Here are two people that I paid to vote for me:
| user | curation |
|---|---|
| @bhuz | 0.351 |
| @mctiller | 0.037 |
It's important to note here that @bhuz gave me a way higher upvote than @taskmaster4450 but taskmaster received higher curation. Similarly, @mctiller gave a higher upvote than @hr1 but @hr1 received more of the curation reward.
This is a system we should be exploiting, yet I read nothing about such a strategy. By leeching curation rewards away from people who sell their vote we can punish vote sellers while at the same time reward our organic followers. Given enough pressure, the system will change.
Another test I ran was on:
@edicted/beware-the-police-state
This time I pumped the post IMMEDIATELY for 9 SBD for $17 in upvotes right from the beginning. This was an attempt to eliminate curation and give myself all the rewards. It worked. The post paid out $23.22 to me with only $0.56 curation.
It's important to note that the value of Steem went up a lot in the last week. This made my purchased votes worth more money by the end of the week. Conversely, if Steem lost money the bought votes lose value. It's best to buy votes during a bull market and sell them during a bearish one. The price feed of Steem is averaged over time (3.5 days) so if it spikes up or down over a short period of time you may be able to fairly easily predict if the value of payouts will go up or down over the next 7 days. Act accordingly.
If there's one thing I've learned from all this it's that I need more information. I'm seriously considering creating a simple bot that will track all these stats. Doing it by hand is simply not viable. I need to track the order of votes and the ratio of money given to me vs money received from curation. Then I need to identify every vote I paid for and estimate my net gain or loss from participating in this service.
Smartmarket guarantees 180% upvotes so if you do the math:
1.8 / 2 = 0.9
Therefore if you upvote early and no curation is taken you're always going to make money unless SBD value is $9 or higher.
1-0.9 = 0.1 SBD lost... but the other half of the reward is $0.90 in the form of SP.
I'm predicting all crypto will be in a bull market for the next 2 or 3 months. Until then, I'll simply be recycling my SBD payouts back into my posts. I'll let the snowball roll until the market turns bearish. Honestly this is looking a lot more profitable than I originally thought. I'll get that bot up and running and continue experimenting. Steem on Steemians.
