So you’ve figured out your Strategy and you have a Betting Plan. Now you have to Execute it. While it might seem like the hard part is done, Executing a Betting Plan effectively can be a challenge. With practise it can become second nature but I’ve had a few Betting Plans go down the drain because of poor Execution so diligence is definitely still required for this stage.
The first thing that can go wrong is if your price has moved. Your Betting Plan might say you are looking to back something at 1.90 but if the best you can find is 1.70 or even 1.50 then are you still making that bet? If you are using the Kelly Criterion it means you will reduce stakes as the odds shorten. If the Implied Probability of the odds catches up to your calculated Actual Probability then the stakes should drop to zero – NO BET. This is one of the reasons I like using Kelly Staking over “Level Stakes Betting” because your stake is proportional to the value you’re getting so you’re not placing marginal bets with the same stake as cracking value bets.
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The next thing that can go wrong is you might not be able to get on for your nominated stake. Maybe there isn’t liquidity in the market if you’re on a betting exchange. Maybe your Bookmakers aren’t offering that market, or perhaps it’s been suspended or discontinued if it’s a bit more exotic. If you’re getting a few winners you might find Bookmakers want to limit your bet stake to a fraction of what you want.
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You should ALWAYS shop around for the best price and I try to check about 5 or 6 competing prices. If you are consistently getting the best price available then it will all add up and it can make the difference between being profitable or loss-making in the long run. If you’re always backing 2.00 shots then a 51+% win rate is profitable. But if you’re only getting 1.90 on those then you need 53+% win rate. It doesn’t sound much but it is actually a huge difference.
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I strongly recommend treating your Bookmaker accounts with respect. Even though I shop around I also like to spread my bets out if I can. If your Bookmaker has limited your stakes you might need to do this anyway, but if you spread your bets out you are less likely to be limited in the first place as you won’t so easily show up on their radar. A lot of small bets is better than 1 big one that will get you noticed. Even if you aren’t getting best price it can be worth it to pad your Bookmaker accounts out with some smaller bets as it will help you keep your accounts alive.
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By far the biggest challenge I’ve had with bet Execution is when my Betting Plan involves some kind of In-Play trade. These kinds of bets are always Time Critical and you always need to be aware that the footage on the TV (or streamed online) can lag by anything from a few seconds to minutes and this can be CRITICAL. In Australia you can’t bet In-Play via the Internet so you have to call up on the phone or use a VPN to change your IP address. There are many times I’ve called up and been stuck on hold or waiting for an operator to process a bet while the event situation is rapidly changing. Your target market can get suspended or move significantly just while you’re on the phone so extra care and planning is required for placing these Time Critical bets.
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