It's that time of the year again where I look back at the Premier League football season and think about "what if?"
What if a team won the games that they "should" have? What if Ronaldo had left sooner?
I would normally go through a lot of the managerial changes but this season must have set a record for the number of managers sacked. By my calculations, only 8 teams finished the season with the manager that they started with!
So let's look at a few what ifs...
What if teams had won the games they dominated?
I'll start by looking at data from understat.com and review a team's "Expected Points" to see where they would have finished if they'd have scored and conceded the goals that they were expected to. Last season, the top 5 all finished where they deserved to...
This time around, the top 6 deserved to be where they finished with Manchester United perhaps being the luckiest team - qualifying for the Champions League where the Europa League might have been more deserving.
2 season ago, Brighton finished 17th when a 5th placed finish was deserved. Having seen Graham Potter leave for Chelsea, Roberto De Zerbi has stepped in and helped Brighton deliver on their strong underlying numbers sealing them a place in Europe.
At the other end of the table, the 3 relegated teams should have survived which seems a remarkable thing to say. Especially given how shit Southampton were. Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Bournemouth were the teams who should have gone down and I don't think anybody would have been surprised if they had.
Of the 3, only Nottingham Forest stuck with their manager with Julen Lopetegui taking over at Wolves in November and Gary O'Neil taking over at Bournemouth in the same month.
What if Julen Lopetegui had been appointed sooner?
Wolves fans thinking that Lopetegui had performed well might be interested in seeing the league table since the date he was appointed...
Which sees Wolves sat rock bottom based upon "expected" data. It's possible that Wolves significantly overperformed because their manager has given his team plenty of confidence but the overperformance is huge and I'm not expecting it to continue.
I think we're all expecting Nottingham Forest to have another difficult season in 2023/24 and don't be surprised if Wolves are another team that struggle.
What if Gary O'Neil had been appointed sooner?
Things look slightly better for Bournemouth with them sitting 17th over the same period (the league table's the same as above). With Southampton relegated this season, Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Bournemouth will be hoping to finish ahead of at least one of the promoted teams - Luton town being the most likely to go straight back down.
What if Ronaldo had left sooner?
This is probably going to be the last time that Cristiano Ronaldo ever gets mentioned by me as his career rots away in the bundles of Saudi money.
Since Ronaldo left Man Utd, they picked up enough points to have finished 2nd in the league although the "expected" data would have seen them 5th.
Prior to his departure, Man Utd were 5th and "expected" to be 7th.
It was clear for all to see that when Ronaldo left, Manchester United improved and the data supports this. Man Utd fans will understandably be optimistic going into 2023/24.
What if there were only the "big-6"?
In 2021/22, Liverpool led the head-to-head and in 2021/22, it was Manchester City (with Liverpool not far behind)...
| Po. | Team | Pl | W | D | L | F | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 242 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 19 |
| 3 | Man Utd | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 23 | 17 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 15 |
| 5 | Spurs | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 8 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 4 |
Manchester City dominated once again, beating last season's tally of 20 points.
Having taken just 9 points from the "big 6" last season (the worst out of them all), this season saw Arsenal perform much better which would have made a significant contribution to their 2nd place finish.
Chelsea's terrible season which saw them with their worst league finish since the 1993/94 season when Glenn Hoddle was their player/manager and Mark Stein was their top scorer. I doubt that anybody reading this will expect to see Frank Lampard manage in the Premier League again having taken just 5 points from the 9 games that he was in charge (which would have put Chelsea 18th and playing Championship football next season).
I talked about Newcastle enough in my Revisited What Ifs a few days ago and they'll be interesting to watch again next season with the additional pressure of Champions League football. Both them and Arsenal benefited from being able to concentrate on the Premier League and it'll be interesting to see how much difference the additional matches will make next season.
Similarly, Spurs and Chelsea will go into next season with just the Premier League to play for and new managers. Whilst there'll be some optimism surrounding Chelsea under Mauricio Pochettino, I'm not sure the same can be said for Tottenham's appointment of Ange Postecoglou. I'll even go so far as to predict Postecoglou won't be their manager by the time I write this post again at the end of next season.
In the relegation spots, I'll predict that it'll be 3 from Nottingham Forest, Wolves, Bournemouth and Luton. It's possible that Fulham will come close too but I expect Vincent Kompany's Burnley and Sheffield United to have enough about them to stay up.
Please let me know what you think in the comments...
