At the end of the 2020/21 Premier League season, I wrote a post reviewing how the Premier League might have ended differently if certain scenarios had happened. It was a post that I enjoyed researching and writing so here it is again, this time for the recently completed 2021/22 season.
What if teams had won the games they dominated?
Using data from understat.com, we can review a team's "Expected Points" to see where they would have finished if they'd have scored and conceded the goals that they were expected to. Last season, Brighton finished 17th and should have finished 5th, securing themselves a spot in the Europa League.
Once again, Manchester City deserved to win the title and interestingly, the top 5 all finished where they deserved to.
Crystal Palace's "Expected" 6th place finish goes to show the remarkable job that Patrick Vieira's done since becoming manager - the season before, they should probably have been relegated. It appears that it was their defence that let them down and their late goals conceded to Brighton remain in my memory.
It's also notable that Brentford "should" have finished 7th. They fell away a bit at the end but had a great season regardless.
In the relegation spots, all 3 sides deserved to go down and will be playing Championship football next season.
What if Antonio Conte had been appointed sooner?
Having been appointed at the beginning of November, Conte was Tottenham's manager for the majority of the season and only missed their opening 10 matches. He's clearly made an impact though and a 3rd placed finish would have seen them ahead of Chelsea. Still in the coveted Champions League spot.
What if Eddie Howe had been appointed sooner?
When Eddie Howe was appointed, Newcastle were in a real relegation battle which Howe quickly got them clear of for a comfortable mid-table (11th placed) finish. Under Howe though, Newcastle could have been far higher up the table and claiming a Europa League spot. Given how they've strengthened during the summer, they could well be challenging for Europe over 2022/23.
What if Sean Dyche had been sacked sooner?
3 out of Burnley's 7 wins this season came after Dyche had been sacked. Although it's difficult to compare teams when they have played a different number of matches, his sacking appears to have been the correct decision, despite not quite managing to avoid relegation.
What if there were only the "big-6"?
In 2020/21, Liverpool led the head-to-head but this time, things were different...
| Po. | Team | Pl | W | D | L | F | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 20 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 10 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| 4 | Spurs | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 11 |
| 5 | Man Utd | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 11 |
| 6 | Arsenal | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 25 | 9 |
Perhaps it's unsurprising how far ahead Man City and Liverpool are at the moment and Liverpool's unbeaten record against their closest rivals is also impressive.
Arsenal's young team and inexperience in the crucial games ultimately saw them miss out on Champions League football next season. Having finished just 2 points behind Spurs, it's clear when looking at this table that Arsenal need to improve for the big games.
I'm particularly looking forward to how Newcastle get on next season and if Spurs can challenge Man City and Liverpool. Many of us thought that Chelsea would put up more of a fight this season but perhaps didn't expect Romelu Lukaku to be such a disappointment.
The mid-season World Cup could also have a big impact, especially as players don't seem to be allowed much of a break any more - Good news for the bigger clubs with deeper squads who can also make use of the 5 subs next season.
Please let me know what you think in the comments...
