First off, thanks to @thebusycat (on Noises: https://noise.cash/u/TheBusyCat ) for pointing this out to which made me have a closer look at the Quest Potions.
When it comes down to Splinterlands and pretty much everything else, I need to be believe there is a positive expected return in order to buy into something which is the reason I never bought packs in the past always just going to the market instead to find cheap cards. I also never touched anything in terms of potions in the shop until yesterday as the explosion in both card prices and DEC value now makes it so that the quest potions have huge +EV value to the point where I can see it getting abused and nerfed in the near future!
Especially for new players who want to get in on Splinterlands but fear that prices are already too high and risky, the Daily Quest potions (See the insane value they bring in calculations below) allow them to get at least 6 Chests each day at a cheap price that pays itself back easily. Those that get in with my Referral Link on top will get 100 DEC and a bunch of free card rentals giving them a head start to do well in the game. See the full Sign-Up Deal I'm still offering!
Quest Potions Expected Value
So a quest potion can be bought for 0.75$ as the standard price in the shop when paying with credits, or 750 DEC at the 1000 DEC = 1$ Peg conversion rate making it 5.5x as expensive given the premium price DEC is trading at. So for that 0.75$ you basically get 5 extra chests for completing a daily quest that includes items that are worth a multiple compared to what they used to go for.
Quest Potions Discounts
Buying the Quest Potions also counts toward the Discounts Guilds are getting depending on how much DEC they sacrificed into it.
For me personally, this comes at a 8% Discount as I'm part of the DEC Hunters Guild! This brings the potions at 0.69$ before the Bulk buy Discount of 10+1 Free.
So a single Quest Potion costs me around 0.63$ and gives 5 Extra Reward Chests Daily!
Probabilities Reward Chests
This is a post I made on noise.cash last month regarding the probabilities.
Based on this 100 Extra Chests (12.6$ cost for me) are expected to give
1x 2000 DEC: Value 11.1$
33x Potions: They will come in handy when opening Chaos Legion Packs and have an average base value of 0.225$ not counting the pemium cards go for so 7.425$
33x Random DEC Amount: based on the last 39 DEC amounts that came from Chests I earned 2352 DEC so on average 60 DEC in each chests. Let's say I was wildly lucky and the real expectation is only 40 DEC, this still adds up to 1320 DEC expected out of 100 Reward Chests or 7.3$
33x Card: based on the probabilities and the average values shown of kiokizz.github.io tis adds up to :
24.8 Common Cards at 0.275$ Average Price = 6.8$
6.6 Rare Cards at 0.557$ Average Price = 3.68$
1.32 Epic Cards at 3.50$ Average Price = 4.63$
0.264 Legendary Cards at 21.42$ Average Price = 5.65$
This adds up to 20.76$ in expected value not even counting the chance of getting Golden Foild Editions which are worth multiple times more.
Conclusion
100 Reward Chests Right now at the base price of the Quest Potions needed to get them costs 14.25$ while they have an expected value of roughly 50$ which offers insane value to the point where I'm pretty sure it will get nerfed sooner than later. It reminds me of the time when the Starter Set (now Summoner's Spellbook) actually included all the Rare and common cards from the beta Set & the time when cards from loot chests could be opened with potions. As more people get to know about the value the quest potions offer
Previous Posts With Things I was doing in Splinterlands:
- Splinterlands | Euphoria Phase & Flipping Packs For Profit Plan!
- Splinterlands | I'm Buying More SPT Tokens!
- Splinterlands | Reasons I'm Buying More Cards & DEC
- Splinterlands | Reasons DEC Price Will Go Up +33%
For more Info Around the Splinterlands Game see...
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