French power
The recent election of Macron crowned as the new French president has send shock waves through Poland's dream of further EU integration. Poland fears losing its influence as the Western allies tighten up behind a 'multi-speed' Europe.
Poland has been one of the most vocal EU states alongside Hungary over losing influence to the more Western powers of the EU. This would have the effect of less money flowing into Poland for European capital projects.
Full speed ahead?
This 'multi-speed' Europe is headed by the economic powerhouse that is Germany, and since Brexit, this model has accelerated further. The key cities of Warsaw and Budapest do not wish to beg for crumbs.
Poland also does not want to be the country of 'social dumping' where cheap labour is sought by rapacious globalisation companies. During the French election a washing machine factory owned by Whirlpool was moved from France to Poland. Macron said he would stop this with immediate effect during his campaign. Let us see how effective he is in power?
Macron also wants to undermine the single market which is not good for Poland. As one of the fastest GDP's in Europe this year, Macron wishes to reform the market that removes cheap labour from Poland. Poland cannot have it both ways. If it wishes to shed its image as the place of cheap labour, then it must allow these laws. If not, then nothing changes. A tough nut to crack indeed for little Poland.
Splinters within
As the EU starts to splinter it looks like the single market will be the first victim in Brexit negotiations too, and with further divisions of the market after this, the signs for Poland are not good.
Poland wants to have an export market that is strong, but when French money comes in foreign investment, the French politicians argue against it.
This is plainly not good. Poland is being excluded from the protectionism debate. This is plainly wrong and not in the spirit of the EU. Neither Hungary or Poland are in any rush to accept the Euro at this stage either. In the current mood this might be the wisest decision for both in difficult times. I wish them both luck against their stronger allies.