A turnaround at this point in time of bitcoin and the whole marekt would be insanely bullish. I do think that there is a chance of this happening, even though I find it less likely than the chances of falling below 6k, and turning somewhere at 3k, 5k, 2k or 1K.

What do you think the chances of such a turnaround at this point would be?

I think the chances of us having formed the bottom now or above 5K is maybe 20%, if I had to make a guess, even though I dont have a scientific way to come up with that numbers. It is just a guess or a feeling I have.

However if that is the case I think it would be sick. Because this would show a lot of strenghts.

First off we are coming from a low in the 200ish price range. Previously we were coming from only about 60ish low (early 2013 bubble). Going from 200 to 6k in terms of the lows after a bubble crash is quite a move up. Even if we go down all the way to 1k, we are still in a healthy uptrend.

So normally we ought crash a bit more. Last time it took us 1.5 years to find a bottom. We have now only been crashing for about 9 months. That also would be a good sign.

S- Curve growth

What this would also mean is that we are likely entering the next phase in the S-Curve of adoption, because otherwise how can we explain such growth and strenght in the price.

Remember a 6k btc price is still insanely high. Think about where we were a year ago.

I have been around in the last crash and one of the difference is today that CNBC still talks about bitcoin every day.

Because I do think that we are in an S-Curve adoption rate, I think it is possible that we are starting to rally now or maybe in a month or two (September or October)

What do you think?

Can this be the bottom?

How likely do you think it is?

What do you think valid bottom ranges could be?