DO NOT BET
COMBOS | ACCUMULATORS | PARLEYS
Combining different bets to see the odds multiplied (better known as Combos, Accumulators or Parlays) is a very popular strategy among small beginning sports bettors and often has them trapped in a vicious circle. I do not claim that this can never be a winning strategy. Based on the mathematics and the psychology behind them, it's just very unlikely. In order to understand why, it is needed to take a step back and look at all the processes that are going on...
Sports bettors do not just bet whatever, the use knowledge, insights and statistics to predict what is going to happen and bet based on this. This is at least what nearly everyone who bets on sports believes. When you understand how the brain works, it is easy to see how most of these reasonings are all just backwards rationalised. Everything always starts off with a feeling (usually the feeling that the big favorite will win) and afterwards the more rational part of the brain will confirmation bias it's way into justifying this feeling.
Accumulators use this process and put it on steroids which make often makes it difficult to overcome the habit of taking these type of bets. This is what is happening...
Everyone always has a strong feeling towards the bigger favorites or low odds overs to win but betting them is not very appealing since you have to risk a lot to win a little. Accumulating a couple of them emotionally fixes this problem. here is how:
- When you combine 5 bets with each 1.30 odds. Each bet emotionally feels like a winner, but your emotions don't really have the ability to multiply which gives you a bet @ 3.71 which has a similar feeling to favorite odds. When you just focus on the emotions, a 2.50 underdog single will feels less likely to win compared to the 3.71 combo despite rationally knowing this is not the case.
- Now you have a 3.71 odds bet that feels like a winner and allows you to win a lot while risking a little at the same time. This goes against my previous post in this series where I talked about how you need to be willing to lose if you want to win in the long run.
- What follows is usually the bet losing because a single match didn't come through often in an unlucky way which leaves combo bettors with the feeling of almost winning which when looking at it neurologically is very similar to the feeling of actually winning.
- This almost winning is very addictive in a similar way winning is, which has combo bettors often going in circles since it feels they are always making great bets that lose with incredible bad luck.
Surely some of the bets will end up winning, but in the longer run it is very unlikely to actually beat bookmakers with this strategy because the mathematics are heavily in their favour !
Bookmakers take a margin on each bet. if you have a 1.30 odds bet, the real odds according to the bookmaker estimations is higher around 1.33. which gives a 2.3% edge to the bookmaker if their estimations are correct when taking it as a single bet. When accumulating 5 of the real odds become 4.16 instead of the 3.71 odds you get which makes you all of a sudden have to overcome a 12.2% margin. (these numbers are conservative, in reality it's probably more
On top of all this, you are forced to take the combo bet at 1 bookmaker making you unable to shop around for the best odds which is one of the best tools available to beat bookmakers
This article might trigger people who mainly bet combos since it is much easier to stay in denial instead of seeing reality. There is a questions you can ask yourself if you bet combos.
- What is your exact betting record on them ?
If you don't know your record, it is very likely that you are down.
The dynamics behind accumulator bets make them extremely hard to resist and everyone who is into sports betting has fallen for them at one point. I'm not sure if understanding the process is enough to get past them or if it is needed to experience longer term losses to do so. If anything I would advice combo bettors to start keep a close record. I have yet to meet a single expert gambler that climbed up in stakes with this betting strategy.
Previous Articles...
Betting Wisdom | #5 If You want to win...
Betting Wisdom | #4 If You don't know your Betting Record...
Betting Wisdom | #3 Always Take The Best Available Odds
Betting Wisdom | #2 Never Bet On Public Underdogs
Betting Wisdom | #1 You Don't Have To Bet
How are they working out for you or have you gotten past them