Week 2 NFL Daily Fantasy Football Analysis - Positions, Salaries, Projected Point Values, Rankings and More!

Week 1 is in the books! Time to fire up the algorithm with some new information!

Granted, we don't have much comparatively to add, but we do have new information on a brand new season! And my algorithm loves new information. I have adjusted the Gamma distributions for every NFL player and have cranked the new expected numbers for Week 2.

First, a few reminders:

  • This algorithm uses as its baseline metric performances for a player from 2013 to the last current NFL week. The set of all in game performances in this data set are my priors.
  • I use Draft Kings scoring to determine historical fantasy points.
  • My algorithm MUST have significant prior information to make projections on a player for any given week. If you do not see a rookie you are looking for on my list, below are historical average rookie performances since 2008 below for your review:
  • I use the priors for each player and fit a well known distribution (Gamma Distribution) curve to establish quantiles for that player.
  • I use the 75% number as an aggressive estimate for each player.
  • I remove outlier points from my data set, and include extra factors, like red zone utilization and targets/touches.
  • I account for players that have soft matchups against weak defensive opponents that historically give up more fantasy points per game on a rolling 8 game average.
  • And, as always,

THIS IS NOT ADVICE ON WHAT TO DO WITH YOUR MONEY!

I do not in any way endorse you gambling solely with this information. This is for your mathematical enjoyment!


The Lineup Optimizer

This is a tool you can use to project an optimal lineup for Week 2 with my custom rankings and Draft Kings salaries. It uses Microsoft Excel's built in Solver feature that will calculate optimal conditions given a certain amount of inputs. The direct link is here, in a shared file through Dropbox. You will need to download and use with Excel on your desktop.

Feel free though to play around with your own custom players and point values.

For instance, if a player is not starting, set their points to 0. If you believe a player has a better matchup than I predicted, add projected points. I am finding that a historically terrible defense is worth somewhere in the neighborhood of a 6-7 point adjustment in a player's favor.

Play around! Add some points!

This is your sandbox! Just remember to follow the instructions provided on the sheet to use and reset each time.

Time for my model!

This week, and all weeks in the future, I will show a players change in ranking from the week prior. You can use this new information to gauge players trending in either direction. New players each week will be marked N/A.


My top QB's:

RankChangePlayerPosTeamOppMyModelSalaryOppDefRank
1+1Drew BreesQBNONYG23.4820028
2-1Cam NewtonQBCARSF22.1790031
30Andrew LuckQBINDDEN22.077008
40Russell WilsonQBSEALA20.6740020
50Ben RoethlisbergerQBPITCIN20.3750014
6+1Matthew StaffordQBDETTEN19.9730025
7+3Aaron RodgersQBGBMIN19.578002
8+5Kirk CousinsQBWASDAL19.370006
9+10Matt RyanQBATLOAK19.0680021
10-1Joe FlaccoQBBALCLE18.6650024
11+11Alex SmithQBKCHOU18.563007
12+4Derek CarrQBOAKATL18.3720016
13+1Ryan TannehillQBMIANE18.256004
14+10Andy DaltonQBCINPIT18.0640030
15-3Philip RiversQBSDJAX18.0640027
16-1Jameis WinstonQBTBARI18.062001
17+1Sam BradfordQBPHIGB18.056005
18-12Eli ManningQBNYGNO17.5760032
19-11Blake BortlesQBJAXSD17.2670011
20+6Marcus MariotaQBTENDET16.3600015
21-1Carson PalmerQBARITB16.3690019
22-1Jay CutlerQBCHIPHI16.0570026
23N/AJosh McCownQBCLEBAL15.5500013
24-13Ryan FitzpatrickQBNYJBUF15.2610023
25+3Blaine GabbertQBSFCAR14.950003
26+1Case KeenumQBLASEA13.5510010
27-10Tyrod TaylorQBBUFNYJ12.2630018
28+1Brock OsweilerQBHOUKC12.2610012
29+2Jimmy GaroppoloQBNEMIA4.8590029

My top RB's:

I know Jamaal Charles is probably not playing again. I left him here though to demonstrate his significance to the Chiefs if he was to play. Spencer Ware is most likely getting a lot of these points.

RankChangePlayerPosTeamOppMyModelSalaryOppDefRank
1+1Matt ForteRBNYJBUF18.7660023
2+2Jamaal CharlesRBKCHOU18.263007
3+16DeAngelo WilliamsRBPITCIN16.9710014
4-3Arian FosterRBMIANE16.760004
5+13DeMarco MurrayRBTENDET15.2570015
6+3LeSean McCoyRBBUFNYJ15.0650018
7+8Danny WoodheadRBSDJAX14.7520027
8-5Adrian PetersonRBMINGB14.270005
9+2David JohnsonRBARITB14.1760019
10+3Eddie LacyRBGBMIN13.460002
11-3Todd GurleyRBLASEA12.9750010
12+10Doug MartinRBTBARI11.959001
13-7Devonta FreemanRBATLOAK11.9610021
14-4Lamar MillerRBHOUKC11.6720012
15+5Latavius MurrayRBOAKATL11.2570016
16+29Ryan MathewsRBPHICHI11.0580022
17-3Frank GoreRBINDDEN10.650008
18-11Mark IngramRBNONYG10.4620028
19+4Thomas RawlsRBSEALA10.4550020
20-15Rashad JenningsRBNYGNO9.8560032
210Isaiah CrowellRBCLEBAL9.7440013
22+6Darren SprolesRBPHICHI9.6380022
23+2Jeremy HillRBCINPIT9.2430030
24+14CJ AndersonRBDENIND9.168009
25-1TJ YeldonRBJAXSD9.0470011
26+29Carlos HydeRBSFCAR8.951003
27-10Alfred MorrisRBDALWAS8.7360017
28+2Shane VereenRBNYGNO8.6380032
29N/AJustin ForsettRBBALCLE8.6440024
30+2Duke JohnsonRBCLEBAL8.4450013
31-4Bilal PowellRBNYJBUF8.2400023
32+1Javorius AllenRBBALCLE8.1310024
33+13Spencer WareRBKCHOU8.161007
34-8Charles SimsRBTBARI8.044001
35-23Tim HightowerRBNONYG7.9380028
36-5Giovani BernardRBCINPIT7.8420030
37+2Chris IvoryRBNYJSD7.6410011
38-4Jonathan StewartRBCARSF7.6540031
39-2Theo RiddickRBDETTEN7.5430025
40+8Melvin GordonRBSDJAX7.4480027
41+3Jerick McKinnonRBMINGB7.237005
42+14Terrance WestRBBALCLE7.1330024
43+14Chris ThompsonRBWASDAL7.037006
44+16Christine MichaelRBSEALA6.9460020
45+4Matt JonesRBWASDAL6.845006
46N/AReggie BushRBSFNYJ6.6320018
47-5Ameer AbdullahRBDETTEN6.5490025
48N/ALance DunbarRBDALWAS6.5300017
49-14Charcandrick WestRBKCHOU6.435007
50-14James StarksRBGBMIN6.340002
51N/ATravaris CadetRBNONYG6.1300028
52+2Tevin ColemanRBATLOAK6.1450021
53+5Jeremy LangfordRBCHIPHI6.1460026
54-1Shaun DraughnRBSFCAR5.837003
55-15Chris JohnsonRBARITB5.4370019
56-5Benjamin CunninghamRBLASEA5.4370010
57-10James WhiteRBNEMIA4.8400029
58-17Alfred BlueRBHOUKC4.8340012
590LeGarrette BlountRBNEMIA4.3400029
60N/AMike GillisleeRBBUFNYJ4.1340018
61N/AKenjon BarnerRBPHICHI3.9300022
62N/ADenard RobinsonRBJAXSD3.8310011
63-20Andre EllingtonRBARITB3.8390019
64N/AFozzy WhittakerRBCARSF2.1300031
65N/ADamien WilliamsRBMIANE2.130004
66N/AFitzgerald ToussaintRBPITCIN2.1350014
67-5Jay AjayiRBMIANE1.437004
68-7Robert TurbinRBINDDEN1.330008
69N/ABrandon BoldenRBNEMIA1.0300029
70N/AKa'Deem CareyRBCHIPHI0.8310026
71N/AOrleans DarkwaRBNYGNO-0.7300032

My Top WR's:

I predict Antonio Brown is going to be a $10,000 player starting next week. Not exactly a novel prediction, but I think a good one nonetheless. He is going to be getting his touches and touchdowns in a key rivalry game this week.

RankChangePlayerPosTeamOppMyModelSalaryOppDefRank
10Antonio BrownWRPITCIN22.6990014
20Julio JonesWRATLOAK19.4920021
3+6Jordan MatthewsWRPHICHI17.0690022
40Brandon MarshallWRNYJBUF17.0750023
50Jordy NelsonWRGBMIN16.475002
6+9Brandin CooksWRNONYG16.3800028
7+6AJ GreenWRCINPIT16.2890030
8-5Odell Beckham JrWRNYGNO15.9950032
9-3Demaryius ThomasWRDENIND15.064009
10+1Doug BaldwinWRSEALA14.8660020
11-3DeAndre HopkinsWRHOUKC14.8870012
12-2Emmanuel SandersWRDENIND14.460009
13-1Mike EvansWRTBARI14.272001
14+21DeSean JacksonWRWASDAL14.163006
15-8Sammy WatkinsWRBUFNYJ14.0730018
16+2Jeremy MaclinWRKCHOU14.063007
17+9Alshon JefferyWRCHIPHI13.8770026
18+7Amari CooperWROAKATL13.6760016
19+13Larry FitzgeraldWRARITB13.6640019
20-1Randall CobbWRGBMIN13.574002
21+13Pierre GarconWRWASDAL12.742006
22+1Dez BryantWRDALWAS12.5840017
23-7Eric DeckerWRNYJBUF12.5650023
240Steve SmithWRBALCLE12.5430024
25+4Michael CrabtreeWROAKATL12.3610016
26N/ATerrelle PryorWRCLEBAL11.3350013
27-6Allen RobinsonWRJAXSD11.2780011
28+12Tavon AustinWRLASEA10.6490010
29+1Julian EdelmanWRNEMIA10.4620029
30-8Jarvis LandryWRMIANE10.464004
31+23Stefon DiggsWRMINGB10.451005
32+14Willie SneadWRNONYG10.4580028
33-13TY HiltonWRINDDEN10.070008
34+8Jermaine KearseWRSEALA9.9350020
35-21Golden TateWRDETTEN9.9680025
36-5Terrance WilliamsWRDALWAS9.8330017
37+12Kenny BrittWRLASEA9.8370010
38+24Jamison CrowderWRWASDAL9.636006
39-11Anquan BoldinWRDETTEN9.5450025
40+4Cole BeasleyWRDALWAS9.5320017
41-2Markus WheatonWRPITCIN9.2500014
42+16Mike WallaceWRBALCLE9.2470024
43+20Davante AdamsWRGBMIN9.042002
44-7Kamar AikenWRBALCLE9.0390024
45+6Vincent JacksonWRTBARI8.840001
46+4Kelvin BenjaminWRCARSF8.8650031
47-4Tyler LockettWRSEALA8.8460020
48+5Torrey SmithWRSFCAR8.747003
49-22Allen HurnsWRJAXSD8.6540011
50-17Michael FloydWRARITB8.6590019
51+10Seth RobertsWROAKATL8.6380016
52-5Andrew HawkinsWRCLEBAL8.4310013
53+3Brandon LaFellWRCINPIT8.3400030
54+14Mohamed SanuWRATLOAK7.9550021
550Victor CruzWRNYGNO7.6430032
56-11Robert WoodsWRBUFNYJ7.6400018
57+18Donte MoncriefWRINDDEN7.664008
58-17Cecil ShortsWRHOUARI7.530001
59+13Nelson AgholorWRPHICHI7.4350022
60-8Marvin JonesWRDETTEN7.3550025
61-4Andre JohnsonWRTENDET7.2340015
62-24Dorial Green-BeckhamWRPHICHI7.1330022
63-4Travis BenjaminWRSDJAX7.1440027
64+15Jaelen StrongWRHOUKC6.5330012
65-17Ted GinnWRCARSF6.5390031
66-2Brandon ColemanWRNONYG6.4300028
67-1Eddie RoyalWRCHIPHI6.3350026
68-8Devante ParkerWRMIANE6.048004
69-4Dontrelle InmanWRSDJAX5.9360027
70+15Paul RichardsonWRSEALA5.7300020
71-35John BrownWRARITB5.7530019
72+15Quincy EnunwaWRNYJBUF5.6440023
73N/ABrian QuickWRLASEA5.5330010
74-5Brice ButlerWRDALWAS5.4300017
75N/ACordarrelle PattersonWRMINGB5.330005
76+13Jeremy KerleyWRSFCAR5.130003
77N/AAdam ThielenWRMINGB5.032005
78+6Kenny StillsWRMIANE4.934004
79-2Kendall WrightWRTENDET4.9300015
80+15Charles JohnsonWRMINGB4.930005
81N/AHarry DouglasWRTENDET4.8310015
82-12Devin FunchessWRCARSF4.7430031
83N/ADarrius Heyward-BeyWRPITCIN4.7360014
84+2Quinton PattonWRSFCAR4.638003
85+3Phillip DorsettWRINDDEN4.544008
86N/AAdam HumphriesWRTBARI4.331001
87-11Albert WilsonWRKCHOU4.032007
88-14JJ NelsonWRARITB4.0300019
89-18Andre HolmesWROAKATL3.9300016
90-23Rishard MatthewsWRTENDET3.8330015
91-9Marqise LeeWRJAXSD3.8310011
92-11Justin HardyWRATLOAK3.7300021
93-13Corey BrownWRCARSF3.6300031
94N/AJared AbbrederisWRGBMIN3.630002
95-17Danny AmendolaWRNEMIA3.5380029
96-4Chris ConleyWRKCHOU3.235007
97-14Jarius WrightWRMINGB3.130005
98N/AJosh HuffWRPHICHI2.9300022
99N/AGreg SalasWRBUFNYJ2.7300018
100-10Chris HoganWRNEMIA2.7350029
101-10Dwayne HarrisWRNYGNO1.7330032
102-8Rashad GreeneWRJAXSD1.6310011
103N/AJames WrightWRCINPIT1.5300030
104N/AJordan NorwoodWRDENIND1.530009
105N/AJaron BrownWRARITB0.8330019
106-10Bennie FowlerWRDENIND0.730009
107N/ACody LatimerWRDENIND0.530009

My Top TE's:

RankChangePlayerPosTeamOppMyModelSalaryOppDefRank
1+1Jordan ReedTEWASDAL14.368006
2+2Rob GronkowskiTENEMIA14.2690029
3+3Jason WittenTEDALWAS11.9430017
4+2Jimmy GrahamTESEALA10.9320020
5-1Gary BarnidgeTECLEBAL10.1400013
6+1Greg OlsenTECARSF9.8560031
7+6Kyle RudolphTEMINGB9.031005
8-6Delanie WalkerTETENDET8.6450015
9-1Antonio GatesTESDJAX8.1450027
10+2Travis KelceTEKCHOU7.750007
11-2Julius ThomasTEJAXSD7.4440011
12+4Charles ClayTEBUFNYJ7.3330018
13-2Coby FleenerTENONYG6.7390028
14+4Jared CookTEGBMIN6.630002
15+4Lance KendricksTELASEA6.4290010
16+9Dennis PittaTEBALCLE6.4280024
17-2Richard RodgersTEGBMIN6.128002
18N/AVernon DavisTEWASDAL6.126006
19-5Eric EbronTEDETTEN6.0350025
20+19Jace AmaroTENYJDET5.9250015
21+13Luke WillsonTESEALA5.6270020
22+9Clive WalfordTEOAKATL5.4290016
23+12Jordan CameronTEMIANE5.428004
24-1Austin Seferian-JenkinsTETBARI5.329001
25-1Crockett GillmoreTEBALCLE5.0250024
26-16Martellus BennettTENEMIA5.0440029
27-6Zach MillerTECHIPHI5.0300026
280Brent CelekTEPHICHI4.9260022
29-3Dwayne AllenTEINDDEN4.636008
300Jacob TammeTEATLOAK4.6290021
31-14Will TyeTENYGNO4.0290032
32-3Vance McDonaldTESFCAR4.030003
33-13Mychal RiveraTEOAKATL3.9260016
34+9Jesse JamesTEPITCIN3.4340014
35-14Zach MillerTESEAPHI3.3300026
36+1Garrett CelekTESFCAR3.326003
37N/AJermaine GreshamTEARITB3.3250019
38-16Larry DonnellTENYGNO3.2290032
39-1Ryan GriffinTEHOUKC3.0250012
40-7Darren FellsTEARITB2.9260019
41-5Jack DoyleTEINDDEN2.725008
42-2Cameron BrateTETBARI2.626001
43-11Tyler KroftTECINPIT2.5250030
44N/AAnthony FasanoTETENDET2.1250015
45-4Josh HillTENONYG2.1250028
46N/AMarcedes LewisTEJAXSD1.4260011
47N/ADavid JohnsonTESDTB0.9760019
48N/AEd DicksonTECARSF0.9250031
49N/ANiles PaulTEWASDAL0.825006
50-8Dion SimsTEMIANE0.625004
51-7Virgil GreenTEDENIND0.428009
52N/AAlex SmithTECINHOU0.263007
53N/AKellen DavisTENYJBUF-1.3250023

My Top DST's

For these rankings, I use a rolling database of the past eight games and determine the effect a defense has on my projections, on average. The best defenses generally cause my estimates to be underestimates, the worst, overestimates.

When you read the DST rankings below, one sticks out like a sore thumb - my Indianapolis Colts. They climbed 16 spots to be the 9th rated overall. What gives? They gave up 38 points in Week 1, right? Well, there is a lot behind the numbers here, but essentially they are getting rewarded in this system for not allowing all Lions to have the games that were predicted of them.

Furthermore, the defense is in the middle territory of significance. This means my top DST's are in the 75th percentile or higher, the worst defenses in 25th percentile or lower. In between? Total crapshoot.

RankChangeTeamPercentile
1+1ARI0.994
2+1MIN0.922
3+5CAR0.880
4+6NE0.867
5+4GB0.825
6-2DAL0.790
7-2HOU0.749
8-7DEN0.748
9+16IND0.713
10-4SEA0.675
110SD0.624
12-5KC0.607
13+7BAL0.586
14-1CIN0.542
15+4DET0.525
16+5ATL0.514
17+1WAS0.513
18-6NYJ0.509
19+3TB0.494
20-6LA0.473
21-4OAK0.469
22-6CHI0.431
23-8BUF0.266
24+4CLE0.212
25-1TEN0.212
26+5PHI0.159
27+2JAX0.102
28+2NYG0.064
29-6MIA0.062
30-3PIT0.052
31-5SF0.047
320NO0.028

Image Credit


H2
H3
H4
3 columns
2 columns
1 column
5 Comments