It seems my attempt to explain my point of view has miserably failed. But, fret not my friends, I will rectify the situation with a simpler analysis of the conundrum. Now, because I realize that plenty of times when people talk about profits, return on investments and what have you, they do so in a language that is not so friendly. I will attempt to tackle this little challenge with the simplest vocabulary I can think of. Personal finance does not have to be that difficult.

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My friends @tcpolymath and @eonwarped showed up to my last post and correctly pointed out the mistake in my little explanation. I was trying to explain things about corn while holding popcorn. Hence why the message I was trying to convey just became confusing.

This is the absolute best way I can describe the plausible scenario, but Instead of using apple stock or any other controversial securities, I will use STEEM and BTC. Keep in mind that the exact valuation of STEEM and BTC won't be accurate, because what's important here is the logic behind this, and not so much the accuracy of the valuations of the coins.

Mary the hard working Steemian

Is hearing from expert traders that It might be a good idea for her to consider selling her STEEM at today's price. This means, that she would send her 100 STEEM tokens to an exchange, and get herself some Bitcoin. Now, let's say for the sake of argument, that 1 STEEM token equals 0.01 BTC - Granted that would be crazy, but please, this is so the math is as easy as eating cake.

Mary thinks to herself, I'm going to sell my 100 Steem Collect 1 BTC ( 0.01 x 100 = 1 ) and wait for Steem to go down in value.

Before we continue with the little story about Mary and her Steemian dreams, I should point out some things about Mary. She believes in STEEM, she has a long term mentality and she wants to grow her influence on STEEM so that one day she can help others. She's not too interested in selling her Tokens for FIAT at the moment, because that would ruin her plans.

In other words, the reason why she is selling her STEEM is because she wants to become a minnow one day, she is currently a plankton, and she's working hard for her goal.

If her plan works

It could go something like this: She could be holding the 1 BTC she now has, until STEEM reaches half of the valuation it had when she sold it. That would mean that 1 STEEM would be worth 0.005

0.01 / 2 = 0.005

The moment STEEM drops to the value she wanted, she swoops 200 Tokens with her 1 Bitcoin. She celebrates with her friends, orders pizza, and gets drunk. As any responsible adult would do after you've successfully managed to double your account.

If her plan fails

It could go something like this: She could be holding on to her 1 BTC, then when she went to sleep STEEM doubled in price. She realizes that she's gonna buy less tokens with her 1 Bitcoin, but she does not want to be left behind. She decides to buy and she ends up buying 50 Tokens.

50 * 0.02 = 1 BTC

Mary is upset, the pizza delivery never happens, she drinks cheap whiskey and loses motivation.

But she is still has 1 Bitcoin... right?

Yes, she does. She could sell the Tokens and get her 1 BTC out at any time. (I'm assuming no fees) - But, she wanted to grow her account, shes on this wagon long term, and she wants to grow influence on the platform. You see, Mary is a dreamer, she has great ideas, but the whales ignore her. However, she has a plan, this is her plan.

What if STEEM doubles again?

Yes, she still made more money in BTC. However, she remains a plankton account with limited influence on the platform. And now, it's even harder to collect 1 STEEM token, so to reach her 500 SP goal seems decades away.

OK @meno, you are being crazy

Yes, I grant you hypothetical Mary is a figment of my imagination. But, she is meant to represent the long term thinkers of this platform and present a possibility on the downside to the potential move some might be trying to make.

I was just telling a friend a little while ago that I'm done gambling. Now, I know I just said that, and someone might say. "But... @meno everything about life is a risk" - Yes, but I rather build something the long route, with a strong foundation. I want it to be sustainable. I don't want to rely on betting on the market to grow my account, and to one day fulfill all the plans I have for this platform and the ones that are one day to come.

Does that mean I'm Mary?

Hrmmm.... now that I think about it. Yes, I seem to be the Mary of the anecdote. But, since this is kind of akward, and I've cornered myself like this, I will make a small correction. This whole time I've been talking about Mario...Mario. You just read it wrong.