Aug 8 will mark 3 months prior to the election. Since 1928 the S&P 500 performance has correctly predicted 19 of the 22 presidential elections.If the S&P 500 return during this time period is positive , the incumbent party wins.
This is 86.36% correct in picking the next president . As it stands today Trump will be the next president .
Price of S&P 500
| DATE | S&P 500 PRICE |
|---|---|
| AUG- 8 -2016 | 2180.89 |
| Nov- 3- 2016 | 2087.99 |
The S&P 500 is currently 92.9 points below Aug 8 .
YEAR S&P 500 Incumbent party
1928..... 14.9%.... WON
1932..... -2.6%.... LOST
1936..... 7.9% .... WON
1940..... 8.6%.... WON
1944..... 2.3% .... WON
1948..... 5.4%..... WON
1952..... -3.3%..... LOST
1956..... -2.6%..... WON..... S&P 500 Predicted wrong
1960..... -0.7%..... LOST
1964..... 2.6%..... WON
1968..... 6.5%..... LOST..... S&P 500 Predicted wrong
1972..... 6.9%..... WON
1976..... -0.1%..... LOST
1980..... 6.7%..... LOST..... S&P 500 Predicted wrong
1984..... 4.8%..... WON
1988..... 1.9%..... WON
1992..... -1.2%..... LOST
1996..... 8.2%..... WON
2000..... -3.2%..... LOST
2004..... 2.2%..... WON
2008..... -19.5%..... LOST
2012..... 2.5%..... WON
How The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index Performs In the 3 months before the November Presidential Election Often Determines Who Wins. The Predicative Power of the S&P500 in Presidential Politics, is Quite High.
If the S&P500 posts gains in the three-month run up to Election Day, the Candidate from the Incumbent party Clinton has a very high probability of winning.
If the S&P500 posts losses in the three-month run up to Election Day, the Candidate from the NON Incumbent party Trump has a very high probability of winning .
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