Key Pointers
#1) The last time these two teams faced each other, the Eagles won in New England 35-28
Of course, this was back in June 2015, so we shouldn't read into this fact too much. However, as there are players on both sides who played in that game and will be playing this time around, I feel the Eagles have a psychological advantage here. On the other hand, the Patriots players will have to try to forget that game, which could be difficult if they trail at any point...
#2) The Eagles have a favourable record vs common opponents in the 2017 season
Since the H2H record is quite old as previously stated, the next best thing is to look at results vs common opponents. Particular games of note here include:
- The Patriots lost by 3 at home to Carolina, while the Eagles won by 5 away to the same team
- Kansas City were the only team to beat both the Eagles and Patriots, but the key difference is that the Eagles were away from home and lost by 7. In comparison, the Patriots were at home and lost by 15! The manner of defeat was a fourth quarter collapse where they conceded 21 points.
#3) Recent form
Both teams have a 15-3 record this season, with the Eagles having a 2 game win-streak and the Patriots having 5.
When looking at the Playoffs alone however, here are both teams' records:
Eagles
| Date | Opponent | Result | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/21 | Minnesota | W 38-7 | +3.0 |
| 01/13 | Atlanta | W 15-10 | +2.5 |
Patriots
| Date | Opponent | Result | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/21 | Jacksonville | W 24-20 | -7.5 |
| 01/13 | Tennessee | W 35-14 | -13.5 |
(Source: Teamrankings.com)
As you can see, the Eagles have greatly overperformed vs the bookmakers' expectations, winning both games as underdogs and beating the spread by an impressive 34pts in their last game.
The Patriots dispatched Tennessee comfortably as expected, but then struggled against the Jacksonville Jaguars, having to overcome a 7pt deficit in the fourth quarter. Now, on one hand, the mental toughness to come back to win when under pressure is a sign of champions, but I think the fact that the Jaguars were able to shutout the Patriots the following quarter (and even add to their winning margin) is something the Eagles will be aware of, and with their very strong defensive lineup, will be aiming to emulate.
Prediction
In summary, I feel that there is definitely value on the Eagles being the underdog. If you had backed the Patriots to win each of their games this season, you'd be almost +2pts up. If backing the Eagles you'd be over +6pts up.
With the bets below, even a narrow defeat of 4 or less for the Eagles would result in an overall profit.
1pt Eagles to win @ 2.75 (Betfair Sportsbook)
2pts Eagles +4.5 @ 1.96 (MarathonBet)
Good luck! Do you agree? Comment below with any bets you're going for.
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