At some point, The crypto market is going to increase rapidly and a lot of people are going to be caught out in many ways. There are going to be the ones that never believed of course, those who sold and are waiting for a buy and also, the ones who held. I am in that last group - the holders, but eventually, I will have to take something from it, somehow. I say somehow because I don't really ever want to have to go from crypto to fiat but, I still have debts to pay. Perhaps I will just sell everything and take off into the sunset.
What would you do if your current crypto holdings skyrocketed? Would you have enough to retire on, live debt-free, do what you please? Now, I have no idea but lets assume for a bit of fun that everything ran in a straight line and Bitcoin did actually hit 1 million dollars so McAfee didn't have to munch on his own manhood - What do you think Steem would be at in that line?
Bitcoin is at 4000ish now meaning it would have to go up 250x from here. Steem is at 30 cents now so that would put Steem at 75 dollars. Silly to think isn't it, but who cares about reality, this is crypto. So, can you retire? If you have 1000 SP it would be the equivalent of 75,000 dollars in value and then 10,000 SP would be 750,000 worth - Would you sell?
It is an interesting question to consider because while that 1000 SP would get 75,000 straight up, it would also be worth about 50 dollars in voting a day which would be, 18000+ dollars in voting value a year or about 25% on the value per annum. Would you sell or hope that it would go up or remain constant?
As said, I held when prices were up and while a terrible financial decision for fiat, I have been able to collect more Steem. However, if I had sold at the top and then bought back at the bottom, I would have about 500,000 Steem instead.
Of course though, there are plenty of people who sold at the top yet, they never saw the need to buy in or more likely, they weren't able or in the position to actually hold any of the fiat they old into to buy back in with. This means that while they might have covered their bills at the time (which is great), they might not be able to cover the next round as they might have very little foundation. People may laugh at crypto holders like myself but, I still believe I have a chance to significantly change my life with what I hold.
It is all part of the game of economic life though and most people play poorly. I definitely have and often still do. We have essentially been told to use our disposable income (and then some) on consumables that have no value instead of assets that have the chance to appreciate. Then we wonder why we struggle financially in life. Well, we disposed of our ability to use that income for something valuable.
Yes, it is great that people spend their hard earned money on enjoying life and being entertained but, life is generally a lot longer than the memory of that entertainment is worth and, a life of struggle is not much fun at all, I know. Perhaps in that scenario of 75 dollar Steem I would sell a bit but, would I sell all? I don't believe so. For me, the prospect of being able to have the power over my own earning potential directly is highly valuable and that's what Steem provides access to, ownership of potential. The Steem market cap from this point would have to be around 22 billion dollars to have 75 dollar Steem. Does that seem far fetched?
What is interesting about Steem is that while many people see it like a business, it is actually a collection of many, many businesses and while none of them might be billion dollar companies themselves, there might be hundreds of companies turning over in the many millions and, with the way Steem works with Steem power and Resource Credits, that locked up Steem could make Steem very scarce on markets. Do I sell forever or do I have an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of 25%? It makes it interesting doesn't it?
Recurring revenue or sell? Take the risk? If it isn't enough to significantly change life or give access to valuable opportunity, why bother selling? Of course, as I have said before, I could have paid off my mortgage in December 2017 instead, I struggle to pay the groceries now. Hindsight though is not a good indicator of what would have happened under different choices.
Games of life and possibilities through the decisions we make. It makes life interested doesn't it? It means that there is a massive range of experience among us and while there is a great deal of suffering, there can also be a lot of joy and happiness. What I am looking forward to when the crypto markets eventually break the banks and flood the markets are the stories of all the people who worked their ass off from poor positions all around the world, took risks, bought a little and held until eventually, their lives changed for the better.
There are going to be many such stories and there are going to be some unlikely crypto holders out there who have squirreled away a few diversified coins and perhaps, will use their earnings to make the world a little brighter in their local community. Or, it won't happen at all and there will be a few people around the world saying, I tried, it didn't work.
My wife doesn't really get why I do what I do, she is more worried about paying the immediate bills we have which is a good position to take as it needs to be done. However, is that all there is to this life, struggle to pay the bills and then die? It seems that there are more people living a life of constant economic pressure than enjoying their earnings so, how does that cycle end?
If we are waiting for someone to end it for us, it isn't going to happen, the only way is to work into a position of living that there is a little disposable income and, take ownership of some part of our world, instead of consuming something that evaporates while passing ownership to a small minority. The distribution needs to shift but, there has to be buy-in to make it happen. A consumable life lived is demanding to continually be fed and ensures that those that create, always have demand and what is demanded might be nothing of value at all.
What you buy with your disposable income will shape your opportunities for the rest of your life. Do you know where it goes and is that where it grows larger or flows away?
Just some thoughts for myself to think on a little before bed.
Taraz
[ a Steem original ]