Repository
https://github.com/steemit/steem
In the past summer, exactly on August 10, SBD Debt Ratio exceeded the upper limit of 5% at that time, and new issuance of SBD was stopped.
However, due to hard fork 20 on September 24, SBD Debt Ratio ceiling rose to 10%, and new issuance of SBD resumes.
Unfortunately, with the STEEM price slump, the SBD Debt Ratio is again threatened by the upper limit.
At this point, it is necessary to check whether the SBD Debt Ratio is well managed or not.
Due to the large volume of SBD that have recently been converted to STEEM, the figures at the time of this report (UTC 2018-11-19 16:30) and the real-time figures may be different.
Aim of Analysis
SBD supply balance trend since August 10, 2018 (when SBD issuance ceased)
SBD volume converted to STEEM since August 10, 2018 & Top conversion accounts
SBD (Savings Included) holding balance ranking
Conclusion of analysis
1) SBD supply balance trend since August 10, 2018 (when SBD issuance ceased)
Let's start with the chart below.
The SBD supply balance has been steadily decreasing since August 10, when new issuances were discontinued,
SBD supply balance rose again after new issuance of SBD resumed after hardfork20 on September 25,
(Despite continued issuance of new SBD), SBD supply balances have shown a sharp decline in November.
In fact, on August 10, the SBD supply balance was about 15.7 million, which is now about 14.1 million, down by about 1.6 million.
2) SBD volume converted to STEEM since August 10, 2018 & Top conversion accounts
See the table below.
As you can see, about 2.98 million SBDs have been converted to STEEM from August 10, 2018 to the present.
It looks a lot more than I thought.
If about 3 million SBDs were not converted to STEEM,
In the same period, SBD increased to about 1.4 million new issues,
It can be assumed that the current SBD supply balance has reached approximately 17.1 million, rather than about 14.1 million. (* 1,410 = 1,570 + 140-300)
Who has removed so many SBDs? Let's look at the top 11 accounts.
Anyone can see @ smooth-f, @ smooth-a. Both accounts have converted about 1.96 million.
That's 66% of the total. The top 11 account contributed about 95% of the total 264 accounts.
Please refer to the figures in the table below
3) SBD (Savings Included) holding balance ranking
In turning SBD into STEEM, witness @smooth's one-man show is great.
But can he do that in the future?
In the table below, let's look at the top-level accounts for SBD holdings. This figure includes the savings SBD.
BITTREX has nearly 9 million SBDs. The next one is @freedom with about 700,000. There are also many SBDs in some exchanges and some accounts.
The amount that @smooth owns is insignificant.
Therefore, in the future, he seems to be more aggressive to convert SBD to STEEM in many exchanges such as BITTREX and accounts with many SBDs such as @freedom.
In fact, the conversion feature is missing from the current STEEMIT platform, so it is inevitable for general users to apply for conversion.
Based on the insufficient understanding of the fact that this function does not convert SBD and STEEM on a market basis but returns STEEM of US $ 1 based on STEEM's feed price, some users may see losses on conversion It seems that it was because it was.
Therefore, this conversion is still inconvenient to go through some platforms (eg steemkr) that have not removed this feature, or to use a separate program.
4) Conclusion
① Summary of analysis
Since August 10, when SBD new issuance was suspended, nearly 1.4 million SBDs were newly issued, but almost 3 million SBDs were converted to STEEM, and SBD supply balances decreased from about 15.7 million at that time to about 14.1 million now .
This aggressive mass conversion is mainly made by the @smooth witness that 66%, so I think he is leading. In the top 11 accounts, a total of 95% of conversions were made.
However, the actual @smooth witness does not have a lot of SBD reserves. Some exchanges, such as BITTREX, have close to 9 million SBDs, and some accounts, such as @freedom, have many SBD supply balances locked.
In order to keep the SBD Debt Ratio below the upper limit at the current sluggish STEEM price, the key issue is how much he can convert these locked SBDs to STEEM.
It is necessary to remind that temporarily haircut is also a concern.
While the impact is negligible, it is a good idea for general users to be able to easily switch applications on the STEEMIT platform as well, adding a detailed statement about it.
② Limitations of the SBD Debt Ratio Management Policy
Let's look at SBD supply balance trend from 2016.
Since the SBD supply balance was very low in 2016 and 2017, our SBD was able to maintain a price well above US $ 1 with the boom in the cryptocurrency market.
But now that SBD supply balance is not low and STEEM price is sluggish, it is not easy for SBD to maintain US $ 1.
The SBD Debt Ratio is again threatened by the upper limit even though it has been less than two months since hard fork 20.
If the @smooth witness and some of the top conversion accounts did not have a very aggressive conversion response, the SBD Debt Ratio might have already reached the upper limit.
So, raising the upper limit of SBD Debt Ratio from 5% to 10% means that it was only a short-term prescription.
In order for us to continue to use SBD in the STEEM ecosystem, I feel that we need some more long-term, reliable policy design in relation to the SBD Debt Ratio.
Thank you.
The Data and Queries
I did this analysis by connecting to the @steemsql db with MSSQL client(Microsoft SQL server management studio)
Refer to My Github