As evening approaches, the European Championships will be kicking off in customary fashion with the host nation, Germany, playing at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Their opponents being surprise qualifiers Scotland, bringing their instantly recognisable Tartan Army.

With the bookmakers making Germany overwhelming favourites (a win probability of roughly 77%), you could be mistaken for thinking that the result is a foregone conclusion. I'm here to make you think twice...

Qualifying

Scotland faced a difficult task to get out of their group, drawn against the much fancied Spain and Norway - the latter boasting arguably 2 of the best players in the World in Martin Ødegaard and Erling Haaland.

They kicked off in incredible fashion, a comfortable 3-0 win against Cyprus and then an unexpected victory against Spain - winning 2-0 at Hampden Park. They then had the difficult task of travelling to Oslo where with 5 minutes remaining, they trailed 1-0 to an Erling Haaland penalty. Not giving up, goals from Lyndon Dykes and Kenny McLean turned the result on its head to see them leading the group, with 3 wins out of 3.

They followed this up with a win against Georgia (who would later qualify through the playoffs) and completing the double over Cyprus. An unlikely 5 wins out of 5, still topping the group and qualification looking an almost certainty.

A defeat to Spain and draws in Georgia and against Norway seeing them comfortably qualify in 2nd place.

Germany on the other hand, qualified as hosts and haven't played competitively since their disappointing elimination in the World Cup Group Stage 18 months ago. They've played 15 friendlies in this time, winning just 6, drawing 3 and losing 6 - more importantly though, their record since Julian Nagelsmann took over reads 4 wins, 2 draw and 2 defeats. Defeats to Austria and Türkiye contrasting with more recent wins against France and the Netherlands.

Perhaps surprisingly, Scotland have the best competitive record of any team in the tournament, except for Portugal, since the last Euros in 2020. A record of 15 wins in 21 matches. Ex-Reading manager Steve Clarke getting more out of this squad than he was ever able to get out of the Mighty Royals.

Much of this has been credited to his tactics and how his squad selection compliments this so well...

Tactics

On paper, Scotland line-up in a 3-4-2-1 or 5-2-2-1 depending upon how attacking you want to make it sound. 3 centre backs flanked by the only wide men (on paper), with 2 holding midfielders, and 2 No. 10's supporting a lone striker.

The starting line-up almost certainly matching the players I've listed in the image, with Adams or Shankland starting up front and Christie potentially dropping out, seeing McTominay play further forward as we saw in qualifying. Callum McGregor likely being the man to fill in alongside Billy Gilmour if Christie does miss out.

It's what happens in and out of possession which makes this initial formation appear misleading.

Out of Possession

Without the ball, the more attack minded McGinn and Christie will be asked to drop back and it'll look more like a 5-4-1. Solid and allowing Hendry to move up if the opponent's Centre Forward drops deep. It's expected that Havertz will play up front for Germany and I'm expecting to see this happen a lot. This means that when Gundogan moves forward, he's still got Tierney and Porteous covering.

Wirtz and Musiala coming in from the flanks will likely have Robertson and Ralston, along with McGinn and Christie supporting the defence and in the middle, Gilmour and McTominay will be trying to keep Toni Kroos in particular quiet - I wouldn't be surprised to see Billy Gilmour given a man-to-man role on Kroos.

It's Musiala and Kroos that I think the outcome will be decided. Ralston is Scotland's 3rd choice right back - with Aaron Hickey and Nathan Patterson out injured. Ralston's a decent player, turning out for Scottish champions Celtic but Musiala is superb on his day and if Kroos can pick some passes, a moment of quality could be all that decides it.

Back to the tactics...

In Possession

In possession, it looks more like a modern 4-2-3-1 formation. One of the full backs (in this image, I've chosen Robertson on the left) will push right up and to stop their left flank being exposed, Kieran Tierney will shift across to cover that flank.

Further forward, the number 10's will shuffle across so that there's width on the other side and options in the centre.

It's unlikely that more than just 1 of the full backs will more forward at any time but when it makes sense to do so, Tierney could also move up and support Robertson on the left flank and similarly Porteous and Ralston on the right.

It's these combinations of wide centre backs and full backs that are key to the way Scotland play.

Scotland won't dominate possession but will be happy sitting deep and try to hit Germany on the counter attack. This was their strategy throughout qualifying which is supported by the data. They had the fewest shots out of any team that qualified but significantly, they had the highest conversion rate. Scott McTominay in particular managing to score 7 out of his grand total of 8 shots.

My Prediction

Ok, I'm conscious that my readers are more likely to be German that Scottish and I'm sure that Germany has been filled by waves of excitement and anticipation. I'm going to be the opposite to this as I certainly don't see this being a comfortable night for Germany. As I mentioned before, a lot will depend upon the ability of Wirtz, Musiala and Kroos to unlock a very solid defensive shape. It's been suggested that the front line of Havertz, Gundogan, Wirtz and Musiala haven't really clicked yet which again supports my thinking. Will the additional pressure of home expectations against a weaker opponent also play its part or will the crowd be that extra push to victory?

Let's be bold and predict a Scotland win. Germany 0-1 Scotland.

 

 

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