Season 2017-2018 Week 16 Results | 11W-12L-4P

This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and live betting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League with some insights on my overall approach. chart up.png

This was an up and down week with an early big winner in the Europa League followed by a 0-6 run on saturday and ending with a 6-0 run on sunday to end up with some healthy profit after 2 losing weeks. One of the major benefits of keeping close track of your own stats is that it gives you a very good perspective. Last 160+ bets have overall been break even despite being up a massive 9.43% on the season. Very few people understand volume in betting and how much is needed to really say something about a record. Having a +3% expected ROI and go 1000 bets without making profit or even making a loss is not unusual. Quality vs Quantity is one of the most difficult questions in sports betting. When you focus on quality alone you can't get enough bets in to overcome short term variance. Finding really big edges in the market these days on top is extremely difficul. When you on the other hand go too high on quantity your average edge will drop a lot which comes along with a lot more variance where you need even more bets to overcome it. Finding this balance is a key factor to succes!

The bet that caused the biggest losing spot last weekend delivered the biggest profit this week. Opposing Zulte-Waregem late along with an over bet in the Europa League against Nice. It's a good example on how you always want to focus on lose a little / win a lot situations. It cost me 400€ last week for a potential 1132€ profit while it made a 1039€ profit this week with 400€ at risk. The under 3 in the AA Gent match lost but could easily have won as Gent as predicted had again a very hard time to break a defense and needed an avoidable penalty to break thinks open. I also hit a negative middle this week on Stvv vs Lokeren both taking the under 9.5 corners pre-game and over 10.5 corners live to see it land on 10 corners. Most bets are taken with small stakes which gives me room to take more live. The match was low in corners until Lokeren took a red card in the 27th minute. I did not want to hedge at that point as a 1-0 would kill the over bet so I waited quite late to take it and see it land on the negative middle

Betting Graph week 16.jpg

Season 2017-2018 Results

446 Bets | 215W-168L-63P | Staked 92523€ | +8729€ Profit | +9.43% ROI

Let me know about your betting week in the comments!

Season 2017-2018 Week 16 Results | 11W-12L-4P | +779€ Profit

Season 2017-2018 Results