Week 1 NFL Daily Fantasy Football Analysis - Positions, Salaries, Projected Point Values, Rankings and More!

I've created a monster --- It...it's ALIVE!!!

Well, I think so anyways. Earlier this summer, I embarked on what I thought would be a four part journey to fine tune an algorithm that used Bayesian Modeling to predict future fantasy football performances. Missed out on those posts? You can read them here: (Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3).

I initially planned on this taking up four parts, but then school started and my busy season took over. I have, however, fired up the algorithm for Week 1 and have my results below! A few things I need to explain first:

• This algorithm uses as its baseline metric performances for a player from 2013-2015. The set of all in game performances are my priors.
• I use Draft Kings scoring to determine historical fantasy points.
• Because my algorithm MUST have priors on a player, I do not rate rookies for week 1. I do, however have historical rookie performances since 2008 below for your review to help judge new players:
  
• I use the priors for each player and fit a well known distribution (Gamma Distribution) curve to establish quantiles for that player.
• I use the 75% number as an aggressive estimate for each player.
• I remove outlier points from my data set, and include extra factors, like red zone utilization and targets/touches.
• I account for players that have soft matchups against weak defensive opponents.
• And, most importantly,

THIS IS NOT ADVICE ON WHAT TO DO WITH YOUR MONEY!

I did backtest this algorithm, and had a modest rate of about 58% cashes from the 2015 season. This was mixed across Head to Head and Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament structures. This does not mean, however, I endorse you gambling with this information. This is just to be consumed for your statistical entertainment only!

Oh yeah, I also built a lineup optimizer!

The direct link is here, in a shared file through Dropbox. You will need to download and use with Excel on your desktop.

It uses Microsoft Excel's built in Solver feature that will calculate optimal conditions given a certain amount of inputs. Each week I will automatically populate this with my top 200 players, point values, and current Draft Kings salaries.

Feel free though to play around with your own custom players and point values. Just remember to follow the instructions provided on the sheet to use each time!

Now, time for the model! Enjoy!

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My top QB's:

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Salary	SalaryPerPtPredicted	OppDefRank
1	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	DEN	23.8	7700	323.2	1
2	Drew Brees	QB	NO	OAK	22.7	8100	357.1	17
3	Andrew Luck	QB	IND	DET	22.5	8300	368.1	19
4	Russell Wilson	QB	SEA	MIA	21.8	7900	361.8	23
5	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	WAS	20.2	7800	386.7	18
6	Eli Manning	QB	NYG	DAL	20.2	7500	372.2	4
7	Matthew Stafford	QB	DET	IND	19.9	7200	361.6	25
8	Blake Bortles	QB	JAX	GB	19.7	7200	366.1	9
9	Joe Flacco	QB	BAL	BUF	19.5	6700	343.5	15
10	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	JAX	19.1	8500	445.8	29
11	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	NYJ	CIN	18.8	6500	345.1	13
12	Philip Rivers	QB	SD	KC	18.8	7000	372.5	7
13	Kirk Cousins	QB	WAS	PIT	18.7	7400	395.0	27
14	Ryan Tannehill	QB	MIA	SEA	18.5	5900	318.9	6
15	Jameis Winston	QB	TB	ATL	18.5	6600	357.6	21
16	Derek Carr	QB	OAK	NO	17.6	7300	414.7	32
17	Tyrod Taylor	QB	BUF	BAL	17.3	6900	398.5	20
18	Sam Bradford	QB	MIN	TEN	17.1	6400	373.9	24
19	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	TB	17.0	7100	418.0	22
20	Carson Palmer	QB	ARI	NE	16.7	7100	425.5	10
21	Jay Cutler	QB	CHI	HOU	16.3	6300	387.1	5
22	Alex Smith	QB	KC	SD	16.1	6500	404.8	11
23	Mark Sanchez	QB	DAL	NYG	15.1	5000	331.8	30
24	Andy Dalton	QB	CIN	NYJ	15.0	6800	454.6	12
25	Robert Griffin III	QB	CLE	PHI	14.8	5600	377.7	31
26	Marcus Mariota	QB	TEN	MIN	13.7	6400	465.9	3
27	Case Keenum	QB	LA	SF	12.5	5400	431.6	26
28	Blaine Gabbert	QB	SF	LA	12.5	5200	416.6	14
29	Brock Osweiler	QB	HOU	CHI	12.0	6300	523.0	16
30	Shaun Hill	QB	MIN	TEN	6.8	5000	734.9	24
31	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	NE	ARI	3.8	6200	1618.2	2

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My top RB's:

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Salary	SalaryPerPtPredicted	OppDefRank
1	Arian Foster	RB	MIA	SEA	18.9	5800	306.2	6
2	Matt Forte	RB	NYJ	CIN	16.0	6100	382.3	13
3	Adrian Peterson	RB	MIN	TEN	15.4	7600	492.4	24
4	Jamaal Charles	RB	KC	SD	15.4	7100	461.6	11
5	Rashad Jennings	RB	NYG	DAL	14.9	5400	362.4	4
6	Devonta Freeman	RB	ATL	TB	13.7	6900	503.4	22
7	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	OAK	13.2	6600	498.9	17
8	Todd Gurley	RB	LA	SF	13.0	7800	600.9	26
9	LeSean McCoy	RB	BUF	BAL	12.7	6400	502.5	20
10	Lamar Miller	RB	HOU	CHI	12.7	7000	550.0	16
11	David Johnson	RB	ARI	NE	12.6	7500	595.2	10
12	Tim Hightower	RB	NO	OAK	12.5	4300	342.7	17
13	Eddie Lacy	RB	GB	JAX	11.8	6700	569.4	29
14	Frank Gore	RB	IND	DET	11.7	5500	470.2	19
15	Danny Woodhead	RB	SD	KC	11.6	5000	429.8	7
16	Darren McFadden	RB	DAL	NYG	11.3	4200	371.2	30
17	Alfred Morris	RB	DAL	NYG	11.2	3800	340.6	30
18	DeMarco Murray	RB	TEN	MIN	11.0	5300	481.1	3
19	DeAngelo Williams	RB	PIT	WAS	10.9	7000	641.1	18
20	Latavius Murray	RB	OAK	NO	10.9	5600	515.9	32
21	Isaiah Crowell	RB	CLE	PHI	10.8	4200	387.8	31
22	Doug Martin	RB	TB	ATL	10.7	6200	581.7	21
23	Thomas Rawls	RB	SEA	MIA	10.4	6000	575.0	23
24	TJ Yeldon	RB	JAX	GB	10.3	4100	399.3	9
25	Jeremy Hill	RB	CIN	NYJ	9.9	4600	464.3	12
26	Charles Sims	RB	TB	ATL	9.9	4400	444.9	21
27	Bilal Powell	RB	NYJ	CIN	9.8	4300	437.8	13
28	Darren Sproles	RB	PHI	CLE	9.7	4200	434.9	28
29	Ronnie Hillman	RB	DEN	CAR	9.5	3000	316.0	8
30	Shane Vereen	RB	NYG	DAL	9.4	3800	404.7	4
31	Giovani Bernard	RB	CIN	NYJ	9.3	4800	515.2	12
32	Duke Johnson	RB	CLE	PHI	9.3	5100	549.4	31
33	Javorius Allen	RB	BAL	BUF	9.0	3600	400.3	15
34	Jonathan Stewart	RB	CAR	DEN	8.9	5100	572.2	1
35	Charcandrick West	RB	KC	SD	8.4	3500	417.3	11
36	James Starks	RB	GB	JAX	8.3	4800	578.5	29
37	Theo Riddick	RB	DET	IND	8.2	4000	486.7	25
38	CJ Anderson	RB	DEN	CAR	8.0	5900	741.2	8
39	Chris Ivory	RB	JAX	GB	7.8	4300	550.7	9
40	Chris Johnson	RB	ARI	NE	7.5	3700	492.0	10
41	Alfred Blue	RB	HOU	CHI	7.5	3600	479.2	16
42	Ameer Abdullah	RB	DET	IND	7.0	4900	701.5	25
43	Andre Ellington	RB	ARI	NE	6.9	4100	593.3	10
44	Jerick McKinnon	RB	MIN	TEN	6.8	4600	672.5	24
45	Ryan Mathews	RB	PHI	CLE	6.8	5700	834.2	28
46	Spencer Ware	RB	KC	SD	6.8	4400	645.1	11
47	James White	RB	NE	ARI	6.6	3600	544.9	2
48	Melvin Gordon	RB	SD	KC	6.6	4600	701.4	7
49	Matt Jones	RB	WAS	PIT	6.4	4700	740.1	27
50	CJ Spiller	RB	NO	OAK	6.1	3600	593.4	17
51	Benjamin Cunningham	RB	LA	SF	6.0	3700	614.2	26
52	Cameron Artis-Payne	RB	CAR	DEN	5.9	3000	505.8	1
53	Shaun Draughn	RB	SF	LA	5.5	3700	672.4	14
54	Tevin Coleman	RB	ATL	TB	5.3	4200	790.9	22
55	Carlos Hyde	RB	SF	LA	5.2	5600	1069.3	14
56	Terrance West	RB	BAL	BUF	5.2	4100	787.3	15
57	Chris Thompson	RB	WAS	PIT	4.9	4000	814.6	27
58	Jeremy Langford	RB	CHI	HOU	4.8	4700	971.7	5
59	LeGarrette Blount	RB	NE	ARI	4.7	3700	785.9	2
60	Christine Michael	RB	SEA	MIA	4.1	3700	912.5	23
61	Robert Turbin	RB	IND	DET	3.2	3000	923.8	19
62	Jay Ajayi	RB	MIA	SEA	3.0	4200	1423.7	6

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My Top WR's:

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Salary	SalaryPerPtPredicted	OppDefRank
1	Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	WAS	22.8	9800	429.1	18
2	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	TB	20.3	9400	462.1	22
3	Odell Beckham Jr	WR	NYG	DAL	19.5	9300	476.0	4
4	Brandon Marshall	WR	NYJ	CIN	19.4	7800	402.2	13
5	Jordy Nelson	WR	GB	JAX	17.8	7700	433.0	29
6	Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	CAR	16.3	7000	428.8	8
7	Sammy Watkins	WR	BUF	BAL	16.0	6900	430.3	20
8	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	HOU	CHI	15.1	8800	584.5	16
9	Jordan Matthews	WR	PHI	CLE	15.0	6700	445.6	28
10	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	DEN	CAR	14.4	5700	395.9	8
11	Doug Baldwin	WR	SEA	MIA	14.2	6600	463.9	23
12	Mike Evans	WR	TB	ATL	14.0	7400	527.4	21
13	AJ Green	WR	CIN	NYJ	14.0	8400	601.6	12
14	Golden Tate	WR	DET	IND	13.6	7300	538.5	25
15	Brandin Cooks	WR	NO	OAK	13.4	7700	574.4	17
16	Eric Decker	WR	NYJ	CIN	13.3	6600	495.0	13
17	Keenan Allen	WR	SD	KC	13.3	8000	602.2	7
18	Jeremy Maclin	WR	KC	SD	13.3	6500	490.1	11
19	Randall Cobb	WR	GB	JAX	13.2	7600	575.8	29
20	TY Hilton	WR	IND	DET	12.5	7500	598.7	19
21	Allen Robinson	WR	JAX	GB	12.5	8300	664.2	9
22	Jarvis Landry	WR	MIA	SEA	12.3	6000	486.0	6
23	Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	NYG	12.1	8500	704.1	30
24	Steve Smith	WR	BAL	BUF	12.1	4900	406.3	15
25	Amari Cooper	WR	OAK	NO	12.1	7200	597.4	32
26	Alshon Jeffery	WR	CHI	HOU	12.0	7900	656.6	5
27	Allen Hurns	WR	JAX	GB	11.8	5800	490.7	9
28	Anquan Boldin	WR	DET	IND	11.5	4500	391.2	25
29	Michael Crabtree	WR	OAK	NO	11.5	5500	478.9	32
30	Julian Edelman	WR	NE	ARI	11.4	6100	533.0	2
31	Terrance Williams	WR	DAL	NYG	11.2	3300	293.9	30
32	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	NE	11.2	6300	561.8	10
33	Michael Floyd	WR	ARI	NE	11.0	5900	538.3	10
34	Pierre Garcon	WR	WAS	PIT	10.6	4400	413.2	27
35	DeSean Jackson	WR	WAS	PIT	10.6	6100	576.3	27
36	John Brown	WR	ARI	NE	10.5	5200	493.1	10
37	Kamar Aiken	WR	BAL	BUF	10.5	4700	448.4	15
38	Dorial Green-Beckham	WR	PHI	CLE	10.3	4500	437.9	28
39	Markus Wheaton	WR	PIT	WAS	10.1	5400	534.9	18
40	Tavon Austin	WR	LA	SF	10.1	5000	495.3	26
41	Cecil Shorts	WR	HOU	CHI	10.0	3300	330.4	16
42	Jermaine Kearse	WR	SEA	MIA	9.9	3500	351.9	23
43	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	MIA	9.8	5000	509.4	23
44	Cole Beasley	WR	DAL	NYG	9.8	3200	326.8	30
45	Robert Woods	WR	BUF	BAL	9.6	4600	477.4	20
46	Willie Snead	WR	NO	OAK	9.6	4800	499.6	17
47	Andrew Hawkins	WR	CLE	PHI	9.5	3800	398.1	31
48	Ted Ginn	WR	CAR	DEN	9.4	4100	434.5	1
49	Kenny Britt	WR	LA	SF	9.4	3900	416.5	26
50	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	CAR	DEN	9.3	5700	613.6	1
51	Vincent Jackson	WR	TB	ATL	9.2	4400	480.8	21
52	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	IND	9.1	4600	506.4	25
53	Torrey Smith	WR	SF	LA	8.8	4900	557.5	14
54	Stefon Diggs	WR	MIN	TEN	8.7	4800	554.7	24
55	Victor Cruz	WR	NYG	DAL	8.6	4000	464.7	4
56	Brandon LaFell	WR	CIN	NYJ	8.6	3900	455.1	12
57	Andre Johnson	WR	TEN	MIN	8.5	3900	459.5	3
58	Mike Wallace	WR	BAL	BUF	8.4	4200	497.3	15
59	Travis Benjamin	WR	SD	KC	8.3	4100	496.3	7
60	Devante Parker	WR	MIA	SEA	8.2	5300	648.6	6
61	Seth Roberts	WR	OAK	NO	8.1	3800	466.3	32
62	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	PIT	8.1	3800	468.0	27
63	Davante Adams	WR	GB	JAX	7.9	4300	543.9	29
64	Brandon Coleman	WR	NO	OAK	7.8	3000	382.5	17
65	Dontrelle Inman	WR	SD	KC	7.8	3400	433.9	7
66	Eddie Royal	WR	CHI	HOU	7.6	3200	419.4	5
67	Rishard Matthews	WR	TEN	MIN	7.6	3300	435.3	3
68	Mohamed Sanu	WR	ATL	TB	7.4	5100	687.3	22
69	Brice Butler	WR	DAL	NYG	7.3	3000	412.0	30
70	Devin Funchess	WR	CAR	DEN	7.3	4800	660.5	1
71	Andre Holmes	WR	OAK	NO	7.0	3200	459.8	32
72	Nelson Agholor	WR	PHI	CLE	6.9	3500	506.6	28
73	Marquess Wilson	WR	CHI	HOU	6.8	3700	542.7	5
74	JJ Nelson	WR	ARI	NE	6.4	3200	501.4	10
75	Donte Moncrief	WR	IND	DET	6.3	6000	951.6	19
76	Albert Wilson	WR	KC	SD	6.3	3600	574.2	11
77	Kendall Wright	WR	TEN	MIN	6.2	3400	548.2	3
78	Danny Amendola	WR	NE	ARI	6.2	4200	679.6	2
79	Jaelen Strong	WR	HOU	CHI	6.0	3800	628.4	16
80	Corey Brown	WR	CAR	DEN	6.0	3000	501.3	1
81	Justin Hardy	WR	ATL	TB	5.9	3100	529.8	22
82	Marqise Lee	WR	JAX	GB	5.6	3100	549.0	9
83	Jarius Wright	WR	MIN	TEN	5.4	3000	558.2	24
84	Kenny Stills	WR	MIA	SEA	5.3	3200	602.6	6
85	Paul Richardson	WR	SEA	MIA	5.2	3000	577.9	23
86	Quinton Patton	WR	SF	LA	5.0	4000	793.0	14
87	Quincy Enunwa	WR	NYJ	CIN	4.8	3800	788.3	13
88	Phillip Dorsett	WR	IND	DET	4.8	4500	945.5	19
89	Jeremy Kerley	WR	SF	LA	4.6	3000	655.8	14
90	Chris Hogan	WR	NE	ARI	4.6	3600	789.2	2
91	Dwayne Harris	WR	NYG	DAL	4.5	3600	800.5	4
92	Chris Conley	WR	KC	SD	4.5	3700	828.3	11
93	TJ Jones	WR	DET	IND	4.3	3000	692.4	25
94	Rashad Greene	WR	JAX	GB	4.0	3500	865.6	9
95	Charles Johnson	WR	MIN	TEN	3.8	3000	781.3	24
96	Bennie Fowler	WR	DEN	CAR	2.1	3000	1415.6	8

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My Top TE's:

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Salary	SalaryPerPtPredicted	OppDefRank
1	Zach Ertz	TE	PHI	CLE	14.4	4300	299.0	28
2	Jordan Reed	TE	WAS	PIT	13.1	6600	505.7	27
3	Delanie Walker	TE	TEN	MIN	12.8	4500	352.0	3
4	Rob Gronkowski	TE	NE	ARI	12.3	7400	602.8	2
5	Gary Barnidge	TE	CLE	PHI	11.2	4700	420.3	31
6	Jason Witten	TE	DAL	NYG	11.0	4100	372.3	30
7	Jimmy Graham	TE	SEA	MIA	10.8	3800	351.1	23
8	Greg Olsen	TE	CAR	DEN	10.6	5100	483.3	1
9	Antonio Gates	TE	SD	KC	10.3	4200	407.7	7
10	Julius Thomas	TE	JAX	GB	8.6	3800	443.7	9
11	Martellus Bennett	TE	NE	ARI	8.5	3400	398.1	2
12	Coby Fleener	TE	NO	OAK	8.1	4900	604.9	17
13	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	SD	8.0	5000	623.3	11
14	Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	TEN	8.0	3000	376.2	24
15	Eric Ebron	TE	DET	IND	8.0	3900	490.1	25
16	Richard Rodgers	TE	GB	JAX	7.3	3100	423.4	29
17	Charles Clay	TE	BUF	BAL	7.3	3400	467.9	20
18	Will Tye	TE	NYG	DAL	7.1	3300	465.1	4
19	Jared Cook	TE	GB	JAX	6.7	2900	429.8	29
20	Lance Kendricks	TE	LA	SF	6.7	3200	476.3	26
21	Mychal Rivera	TE	OAK	NO	6.7	2600	390.2	32
22	Zach Miller	TE	CHI	HOU	6.5	3700	565.3	5
23	Larry Donnell	TE	NYG	DAL	6.4	2900	456.1	4
24	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	TE	TB	ATL	6.2	2800	454.2	21
25	Crockett Gillmore	TE	BAL	BUF	5.8	2600	450.1	15
26	Dennis Pitta	TE	BAL	BUF	5.7	2600	459.4	15
27	Dwayne Allen	TE	IND	DET	5.2	3200	610.2	19
28	Maxx Williams	TE	BAL	BUF	5.2	2600	502.3	15
29	Brent Celek	TE	PHI	CLE	5.2	2700	522.5	28
30	Vance McDonald	TE	SF	LA	5.1	3100	604.5	14
31	Jacob Tamme	TE	ATL	TB	5.1	2800	549.5	22
32	Clive Walford	TE	OAK	NO	4.9	3000	606.6	32
33	Tyler Kroft	TE	CIN	NYJ	4.7	2700	572.9	12
34	Darren Fells	TE	ARI	NE	4.6	2700	581.6	10
35	Luke Willson	TE	SEA	MIA	4.4	2700	610.1	23
36	Jordan Cameron	TE	MIA	SEA	4.4	3000	683.5	6
37	Jack Doyle	TE	IND	DET	3.9	2500	635.5	19
38	Garrett Celek	TE	SF	LA	3.8	2700	704.0	14
39	Ryan Griffin	TE	HOU	CHI	3.8	2600	681.8	16
40	Jace Amaro	TE	TEN	MIN	3.7	2700	730.3	3
41	Cameron Brate	TE	TB	ATL	3.6	2900	815.3	21
42	Josh Hill	TE	NO	OAK	3.5	2500	704.6	17
43	Dion Sims	TE	MIA	SEA	3.4	2500	730.8	6
44	Jesse James	TE	PIT	WAS	2.5	3400	1361.6	18
45	Virgil Green	TE	DEN	CAR	2.3	2900	1286.1	8
46	Ryan Hewitt	TE	CIN	NYJ	2.2	2500	1118.0	12

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My Top DST's

Note, these are organized by top percentile performances over a rolling average of the past eight games. Their overall percentile is also displayed, the higher, the better.

Rank	Team	Percentile
1	DEN	0.975
2	ARI	0.917
3	MIN	0.894
4	DAL	0.854
5	HOU	0.849
6	SEA	0.842
7	KC	0.831
8	CAR	0.806
9	GB	0.805
10	NE	0.758
11	SD	0.722
12	NYJ	0.722
13	CIN	0.633
14	LA	0.620
15	BUF	0.603
16	CHI	0.532
17	OAK	0.486
18	WAS	0.468
19	DET	0.427
20	BAL	0.407
21	ATL	0.391
22	TB	0.379
23	MIA	0.372
24	TEN	0.316
25	IND	0.290
26	SF	0.158
27	PIT	0.139
28	CLE	0.122
29	JAX	0.075
30	NYG	0.036
31	PHI	0.026
32	NO	0.021

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