About a month ago, I posted A quick look at Steem inflation as Q3 comes to a close where I focused on daily STEEM production and concluded that if I'm understanding things correctly, the expected daily production of new STEEM will peak by February, 2024.
What I didn't do in that post was to say much about the virtual supply size. So this morning I took a closer look at that curve. Here's an update to one of the graphs, showing the inflation curve, the daily STEEM production, and the topic of today's post - the virtual supply. Lets look more closely at the numbers in the green curve.
In support of this post's title, today's virtual supply value is 497,239,775, and the value on Oct. 20, 2053 is projected at 966,391,357.
What that tells us is that from the blockchain's launch in March, 2016 until today - a bit over 7 1/2 years - 497 million STEEM have been produced (considering 1 SBD as a claim on $1 worth of STEEM at the blockchain's internal prices). From today until October 20, 2053 - roughly 30 years - only 469 million new STEEM will be produced. 51.4% of the projected 37 1/2 year total has already been produced in ~20% of the time (aside: in the next 7 1/2 years, only about 225 million new STEEM are projected - not quite 1/2 of the first 7 1/2 years).
And, if I understand things correctly, the projected virtual supply number in 2053 should be seen as an upper limit, not as a prediction. There are multiple factors that might bring that number down.
- A rising price of STEEM (only above the SBD print threshold) will reduce the size of the virtual supply.
- Burned STEEM/SP/SBD will reduce the virtual supply.
- Missed witness blocks will reduce the virtual supply.
- Anything else?
On the other hand, I'm not aware of any factors that could raise the virtual supply above the projected value (aside from a hard fork with a rule change that could conceivably do anything imaginable). Please correct me if I'm missing something.
(I imagine that this is why SBD has been able to stay above $1 for a period of years on the external markets, when it was intended to be pegged to a dollar.)
Update: Based on the code, I believe there is an exception to seeing this value as an upper limit. Namely, SBD interest could drive the virtual supply value above the projection if the witnesses were to set the interest rate above 0. End update
As long as I'm posting, it's also noteworthy that our actual inflation, ~87,614 new STEEM per day, is almost 2 years ahead of the projected inflation curve. Presumably, this is mostly due to the #burnsteem25 project. The current daily production vs. the projected production can be seen in the middle row of the graphic below.
Thank you for your time and attention.
As a general rule, I up-vote comments that demonstrate "proof of reading".
Steve Palmer is an IT professional with three decades of professional experience in data communications and information systems. He holds a bachelor's degree in mathematics, a master's degree in computer science, and a master's degree in information systems and technology management. He has been awarded 3 US patents.
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