This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and live betting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League with some insights on my overall approach.
Despite the heavy down reversal of the last weeks, I'm quite ok with the weekend as the negative results were mainly based on multiple unfortunate events. I much rather take these losses compared to the ones last week where it was due to my own poor live betting decisions. I have talked before on how I keep an expected profit pink line and see it as a pillow to fall on when things get too far ahead. This really helps to keep a stable mental mindset and ride the swings that come along with betting sports.
My plan to slow down a bit didn't really come through with 27 bets in 10 matches. Often times I take multiple middle / hedge positions live in a match depending on the setup. The corners in Antwerp vs Waasland match was a good example. Antwerp were the better team in the first half and were getting all the corners (5-0). When they scored the 1-0, it gave a good opportunity to bet the under 11.5 corners as they were unlikely to keep pushing like this because of the new scoreline. Things changed when Waasland scored the 1-1 just before HT which made the over favorable again so I traded out with an Over 9.5 and Over 10 CK middle. When the 10th corner hit, I fully opted out with and extra O 11.5 CK bet. This is one of the ways to get a lot of bets and good volume in without it having to increase the risk. (the match ended with 13 CK)
On one of my live bets I really felt robbed by the bookmakers as it should have never been accepted. When betting live, your bets are often pending and waiting to get accepted at a point when play is outside the 'danger zone'. Because of this you want to bet the unders or underdogs when there is an attack going and bet the favorites and overs when nothing is going on. It's really frustrating to have a bet pending and see the odds go up in the meantime. This is one of the reasons why it's very tricky to bet very late in a match. One of the live under bets I took was clearly in the danger zone while taking it, but it was accepted anyway while a goal was scored. It's the first time in years this happened to me and I really felt cheated, but there is nothing really to do about it. It did get me tilting a bit out of disbelief.
Week 25 Results 27 Bets | 10W-15L-02P | Staked 10277€ | -2481€ Loss
Week 24 Results 28 Bets | 12W-13L-04P | Staked 9480€ | -2015€ Loss
Week 23 Results 16 Bets | 12W-03L-01P | Staked 5174€ | +2490€ Profit
Week 22 Results 30 Bets | 13W-12L-05P | Staked 11422€ | +2707€ Profit
Week 21 Results 17 Bets | 09W-07L-01P | Staked 3690€ | +686€ Profit
Week 20 Results 12 Bets | 05W-06L-01P | Staked 3340€ | -336€ Loss
Week 19 Results 15 Bets | 06W-07L-02P | Staked 4250€ | -641€ Loss
Week 18 Results 19 Bets | 07W-07L-05P | Staked 5407€ | +50€ Profit
Week 17 Results 35 Bets | 16W-12L-07P | Staked 9526€ | +1425€ Profit
Week 16 Results 27 Bets | 11W-12L-04P | Staked 6291€ | +779€ Profit
Week 15 Results 29 Bets | 11W-14L-04P | Staked 6017€ | -627€ Loss
Week 14 Results 20 Bets | 06W-11L-013 | Staked 4469€ | -661€ Loss
Week 13 Results 26 Bets | 15W-10L-01P | Staked 5489€ | +318€ Profit
Week 12 Results 20 Bets | 09W-08L-03P | Staked 3805€ | +509€ Profit
Week 11 Results 28 Bets | 12W-09L-07P | Staked 5727€ | +407€ Profit
Week 10 Results 31 Bets | 17W-10L-04P | Staked 6779€ | +548€ Profit
Week 09 Results 39 Bets | 25W-10L-10P | Staked 8463€ | +3054€ Profit
Week 08 Results 41 Bets | 16W-14L-10P | Staked 9170€ | -82€ Loss
Week 07 Results 35 Bets | 21W-11L-03P | Staked 6360€ | +3354€ Profit
Week 06 Results 16 Bets | 13W-01L-02P | Staked 3180€ | +2251€ Profit
Week 05 Results 27 Bets | 10W-09L-08P | Staked 6688€ | -645€ Loss
Week 04 Results 31 Bets | 11W-15L-05P | Staked 6813€ | -1423€ Loss
Week 03 Results 26 Bets | 11W-12L-03P | Staked 4582€ | -861€ Loss
Week 02 Results 21 Bets | 12W-08L-01P | Staked 3787€ | +714€ Profit
Week 01 Results 29 Bets | 15W-13L-01P | Staked 4903€ | +1091€ Profit
Season 2017-2018 Results
645 Bets|304W-250L-91P|Staked 155025€|+10797€ Profit|+6.96% ROI
Let me know about your betting week in the comments!